Week 11 Slate
CFB · Rankings

Masterstrokes and Money Pits: Grading College Football's Head Coaching Hires, 2024–2026

Twenty-eight FBS head coaching hires from the 2024, 2025 and 2026 cycles, graded A+ to F on program lift, results, talent leverage, roster building and cost, using CollegeFootballData.com data through games played by Nov. 11, 2026.

Nov 11, 2026 · 33 min read

Flagship series

Let's Talk About It

The week's biggest games on the chalkboard: unit-vs-unit edges, the numbers that decide it, and a call you can hold us to.

Let's Talk About ItLet's Talk About It — Week 11New episode drops soon. Paste your video ID in site settings.

01This week's top model picks

Full model board →
Example dataThese cards show sample rows so you can see the layout. Drop your model's weekly CSV into src/data/model-picks/ and they become your real picks.
Season record
5-3Straight up
6-2Against the spread
6-1-1Totals

8 graded · 9 pending

CFB · Wk 11Big TenExampleElite
Sample State30
@ Demo University23

Projected score

Model pickSample State
72% win prob.
Market
Demo University +2.5
Model line
Demo University +7
Spread edge
4.5 pts · Sample State -2.5
Total edge
Over 51.5 · 1.5 pts

EXAMPLE ROW — not a real pick

NFL · Wk 11NFCExampleElite
Placeholder Bison17
@ Example City Sharks24

Projected score

Model pickExample City Sharks
73% win prob.
Market
Example City Sharks -5.5
Model line
Example City Sharks -7
Spread edge
1.5 pts · Example City Sharks -5.5
Total edge
Under 42 · 1 pts

EXAMPLE ROW — not a real pick

CFB · Wk 11SECExampleStrong
Placeholder A&M21
@ Example Tech28

Projected score

Model pickExample Tech
69% win prob.
Market
Example Tech -3.5
Model line
Example Tech -7
Spread edge
3.5 pts · Example Tech -3.5
Total edge
Over 47.5 · 1.5 pts

EXAMPLE ROW — not a real pick

02Film Room: Unit vs. Unit

All 7 breakdowns →

Featured · Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET

Wake Forest at SMU

ACC title-game positioning for both. Wake Forest is one game behind Miami and needs a second ranked win; SMU must win out and get help. A pick'em in the noon ESPN window.

Our callWake Forest 34, SMU 27

Open the breakdown
Unit vs. Unit 2

Wake Forest OvsSMU D

Wake Forest offenseEvenSMU defense
Wake Forest OMetricSMU D
+0.394#2EPA/playEdge: Wake Forest#75+0.104
51.8%#4Success rateEdge: Wake Forest#4339.2%
+0.305#2Rush EPAEdge: Wake Forest#91+0.124
+0.507#3Pass EPAEdge: Wake Forest#41+0.109
9.5%#6HavocEdge: Wake Forest#4017.4%
5.10#1Pts per opportunityEdge: Wake Forest#1094.00
Edge verdict

Wake Forest offense, clearly, and one of the widest gaps on the slate: 2nd vs 75th in EPA per play, 1st vs 109th in points per opportunity, and 2nd vs 91st in rushing EPA. SMU's counters are real, 8th in pass success allowed and 10th on third down, but Wake Forest is 2nd on passing downs and 9th on third down, so those numbers rarely get the down they want. The caveat is the quarterback: Lopez missed last week and is expected to play.

03Analytics Corner

Metrics explained →
CFB · Let's Talk About It

Week 11 Let's Talk About It: The Slate

Saturday, Nov 14, 2026: the five biggest games plus the best non-Power Four game. Each has a unit-vs-unit matchup breakdown built on CollegeFootballData.com advanced metrics, three cold-open hooks, a teleprompter-ready script of about three minutes, three exits, and sources.

Nov 12, 2026 · 5 min read

CFB · Deep Dive

Is Texas Back? Arch Manning Has Caught Fire. The Run Game Hasn't.

Since mid-October, Texas' passing game has nearly doubled its efficiency, and its defense is one of the four best in the country by SP+. The roster can beat anybody. The offensive line is why it might not get the chance.

Nov 11, 2026 · 10 min read

CFB · Deep Dive

Utah Is 9–0 Without Kyle Whittingham. Michigan Is 5–4 With Him.

Eleven months after he stepped down in Salt Lake City and joked he was “in the transfer portal,” the program he built is No. 2 in the CFP rankings. The program that hired him has fired its offensive coordinator, lost two trophy games, and is fielding national questions about whether he'll be back.

Nov 11, 2026 · 19 min read

06Week 11 picks

Tracker →
  • Texas @ LSULSU 23, Texas 20
  • Utah @ ArizonaUtah 27, Arizona 23
  • Missouri @ GeorgiaGeorgia 31, Missouri 16
  • USC @ IndianaIndiana 23, USC 20
  • Texas Tech @ Oklahoma StateOklahoma State 41, Texas Tech 38
  • Oregon State @ Boise StateBoise State 38, Oregon State 24
  • Wake Forest @ SMUWake Forest 34, SMU 27

Results post after Saturday · From the Let's Talk About It scripts