USC at Indiana: Unit vs. Unit Breakdown

#18USC

atIndiana opened -7 to -7.5

#9Indiana

Sat Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET, CBS, Memorial Stadium

Our callIndiana 23, USC 20

Indiana's defense makes USC one-dimensional, and the Hoosiers grind it out. But eleven is a lot of points. Indiana 23, USC 20.

Line: Indiana opened -7 to -7.5, total 49.5–50.5; jumped to -11 at Circa Wed afternoon (per Chris Fallica via Heavy). Cause not confirmed.
Records: Indiana 8-1 (5-1 Big Ten), USC 7-2 (4-2 Big Ten)
Why it's here: A playoff eliminator for both. The defending champs fell five spots on a bye; CBS says a home loss could knock them out.
Injuries to watch: Indiana: QB Josh Hoover not listed; RB Turbo Richard (745 yds, 6 TD) and DL Kellan Wyatt out. USC: nothing significant on first report per Hoosier Huddle.

Unit vs. Unit 1

USC OvsIndiana D

249

USC offenseEvenIndiana defense

USC OMetricIndiana D

+0.247#21EPA/playEdge: Indiana#9-0.040

50.1%#12Success rateEven#333.1%

1.21#94ExplosivenessEdge: USC#1191.35

+0.056#91Rush EPAEdge: Indiana#12-0.100

45.0%#51Rush successEdge: Indiana#331.3%

+0.421#13Pass EPAEven#17+0.017

54.2%#4Pass successEven#1435.5%

3.02#76Line yardsEdge: Indiana#52.31

20.4%#105Stuff rateEdge: Indiana#4220.7%

12.4%#20HavocEdge: Indiana#820.0%

4.0%#27Sack rateEdge: Indiana#510.4%

41.0%#7Passing-downs successEdge: USC#6829.4%

49.5%#15Third downEven#1931.6%

4.12#44Pts per opportunityEdge: Indiana#212.86

37#15SP+ unit ratingEdge: Indiana#210

Edge verdict

Indiana defense, narrowly. The passing game is close to even, but USC is one-dimensional against a defense that's top 10 in havoc (8th) and sack rate (5th). USC's opening is explosiveness: Indiana is 119th in explosiveness allowed even though, per CBS, it has allowed only 25 plays of 20-plus yards (13th fewest). It gives up few big plays, but the ones it does allow are costly.

Key personnel

Jayden Maiava (66.9%, 8.5 yards per attempt, 20 TD, 5 INT), WR Trent Mosley (32 rec, 512 yds, 6 TD) and TE Mark Bowman (24 rec, 283 yds), per CFBD, against Indiana edge Tobi Osunsami (10 sacks, 15.5 TFL, both Big Ten highs per CBS).

Scheme clash

Best against best in the dropback game: USC is 4th in passing success and 7th on passing downs; Indiana is 14th in pass success allowed and 5th in sack rate. The tilt is on the ground. USC is stuffed on 20.4% of runs (105th), and Indiana is 3rd in rushing success allowed and 5th in line yards allowed. If USC can't stay balanced, Indiana can rush four and drop seven on known passing downs, which squeezes the timing throws Maiava lives on.

Percentile profile · USC offense vs Indiana defense

Percentile = national rank converted to 0–100 (100 = best unit in FBS). Hover a point for the raw value.

Unit vs. Unit 2

Indiana OvsUSC D

1113

Indiana offenseEvenUSC defense

Indiana OMetricUSC D

+0.279#12EPA/playEdge: Indiana#86+0.122

43.9%#52Success rateEdge: Indiana#6540.9%

1.38#8ExplosivenessEdge: Indiana#831.26

+0.103#65Rush EPAEdge: USC#54+0.029

41.8%#89Rush successEdge: USC#6141.5%

+0.481#7Pass EPAEdge: Indiana#121+0.330

46.2%#35Pass successEdge: Indiana#8342.4%

3.24#33Line yardsEdge: Indiana#572.85

16.0%#38Stuff rateEdge: Indiana#8318.1%

12.3%#19HavocEdge: Indiana#12412.5%

5.3%#52Sack rateEven#517.0%

31.7%#58Passing-downs successEdge: Indiana#10332.5%

40.2%#69Third downEdge: USC#4935.8%

4.17#42Pts per opportunityEdge: Indiana#1003.86

33.6#27SP+ unit ratingEdge: Indiana#3921.3

Edge verdict

Indiana offense on paper, by a wide margin: 7th vs 121st in passing EPA, and 42nd vs 100th in points per opportunity. The caveat is big: these are season-long numbers, the recent form is much worse, and the run game is down its best back.

Key personnel

Josh Hoover (60.2%, 9.0 yards per attempt, 19 TD, 2 INT per CFBD) or Grant Wilson (13 of 22, 230 yds, 3 TD), throwing to WRs Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh. RB Turbo Richard (745 yds, 6.6 per carry) is out.

Scheme clash

The season data and the last month don't agree. Season-long, Indiana is 7th in passing EPA and 8th in explosiveness, against a USC defense that's 121st against the pass and 124th in havoc. But Indiana has averaged 16.75 points over its last four games (CBS), it's 89th in rushing success, and now it's without its lead back. USC's plan is to keep everything in front and force long drives, the way it held Ohio State to field goals in the red zone.

Percentile profile · Indiana offense vs USC defense

Percentile = national rank converted to 0–100 (100 = best unit in FBS). Hover a point for the raw value.

CollegeFootballData.com, 2026 season through Nov 11, garbage time excluded. National rank among 138 teams in parentheses (1 = best for that unit). Explosiveness is average EPA on successful plays. Third down and sack rate (sacks ÷ attempts plus sacks) are computed from CFBD season totals. Pts per opportunity = points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. Edge = better-ranked unit; within 10 spots is Even.

Let's Talk About It: the episode

Let's Talk About ItUSC at IndianaEpisode script below · video link coming

Teleprompter script

Let's talk about it.

[GFX: #18 USC (7-2) at CFP #9 INDIANA (8-1) | SAT 3:30 ET, CBS | IU -7.5 → -11, O/U 50]

A year ago, Indiana went 16-0 and won the national title. This week, the Hoosiers dropped five spots in the playoff rankings, on a bye. Win out, and Indiana is back in Indianapolis with a playoff spot. Lose this one at home, and the reigning champs could be left out entirely. USC, at 7-2 and fresh off a 30-18 win over Ohio State, is playing for the same thing.

Then Wednesday got weird.
[GFX: LINE MOVE | 7 → 11]
The number went from 7 to 11 at Circa. That night's availability report: Josh Hoover not listed. Leading rusher Turbo Richard out. Defensive lineman Kellan Wyatt out. Nothing significant for USC. Nobody has publicly explained the move.

Key number one: best against best.
[GFX: USC PASS SUCCESS 54.2% (4th) vs IU PASS SUCCESS ALLOWED 35.5% (14th) | CFBD]
Jayden Maiava runs the fourth-most efficient passing offense in the country. Indiana's defense is third in success rate allowed, fifth in sack rate and eighth in havoc, with Tobi Osunsami leading the Big Ten in sacks. That's a fair fight. Here's what tilts it: USC gets stuffed on 20 percent of its runs, 105th, and Indiana is third in rushing success allowed. If USC can't stay balanced, Indiana rushes four, drops seven on passing downs, and closes the windows Maiava's timing game lives on.

Key number two: the paradox in Indiana's offense. Season-long, the Hoosiers are seventh in passing EPA and eighth in explosiveness. USC's pass defense is 121st, and its havoc rate is 124th. On paper, it's a mismatch. On the field, Indiana has scored 16.75 points a game over the last month, it's 89th in rushing success, and now it's without its best back. Which Indiana shows up decides this game.

Key number three: Lincoln Riley on the road. USC is 4-8 on trips outside Los Angeles over the last three years. The last time it left home, it ran for negative yards at Wisconsin and scored seven. The counter is the freshmen. Trent Mosley has 512 yards and six touchdowns, and tight end Mark Bowman is a size-speed problem for linebackers.

[GFX: X-FACTOR | MARK BOWMAN, TE]
X-factor: Mark Bowman. Indiana rarely allows explosives, just 25 plays of 20-plus yards all season. But when an offense does succeed against it, the gain is big: Indiana is 119th in explosiveness allowed. Bowman up the seam is where that happens.

[GFX: THE STAT | 16.75]
The stat: 16.75. Indiana's scoring average over the last month, from an offense whose season numbers still say top ten.

Prediction: Indiana's defense makes USC one-dimensional, and the Hoosiers grind it out. But eleven is a lot of points. Indiana 23, USC 20.

Writer's room: cold-open hooks

The defending national champions dropped five spots in the rankings. During a bye week. Indiana didn't lose a game. It lost the benefit of the doubt.
Wednesday afternoon, this line jumped from 7 to 11. Somebody in Vegas thinks they know something. Saturday, we find out who.
Colin Cowherd called Indiana's offense a BB gun. USC's defense has spent all year as a paper target. Somebody's about to find out how much a BB stings.

Writer's room: exits

Is Indiana still the champ, or just the team that used to be? Let's talk about it.
Seven or eleven: which number was right? Pick your side in the comments. Let's talk about it.
Three years of Lincoln Riley road trouble. Does it end in Bloomington? Let's talk about it.

USC OvsIndiana D

Key personnel

Scheme clash

Indiana OvsUSC D

Key personnel

Scheme clash

Let's Talk About It: the episode

Sources