Masterstrokes & money pits

The hire that turned a 9-27 program into a 16-0 national champion, and turned every athletic director's search into a Cignetti photocopy.

Record

35-3 at Indiana (11-2, 16-0, 8-1). Previous three seasons: 9-27

SP+ before → now

#92 (−7.4) in 2023 → #1 (32.4) in 2025 → #5 (23.5) in 2026

Talent vs. results

2025: talent #72, SP+ #1. 2026: talent #38, SP+ #5

Vs. AP Top 25

6-3 (6-0 in 2025)

Contract

8 years through Nov. 30, 2033, about $11.6M a year; he owes IU $15M if he leaves before Nov. 30, 2026

Identity: the defense is the constant. Indiana's defensive SP+ ranked No. 15 in 2024, No. 2 in 2025 and is No. 2 again, and its defensive EPA per play went from 0.21 the year before he arrived to −0.06 during the title run. The 2026 offense has slipped from No. 2 to No. 27 in SP+, which is why the Hoosiers are winning 13-6 and 20-17 instead of 56-6.

Roster: he built version one with a pipeline from his old job, as 13 of Indiana's 30 incoming 2024 transfers came from James Madison. High school classes have climbed with the results, from No. 65 (2024) to No. 47 (2025) to No. 29 (2026). His 17 incoming 2026 transfers averaged a 0.887 rating, among the highest of any program in this story.

Defining moment: the 2025 run. Indiana beat No. 1 Ohio State 13-10 for the Big Ten title, then No. 9 Alabama 38-3, No. 4 Oregon 56-22 and No. 2 Miami 27-21 to finish 16-0.

Why A+: a roster ranked outside the top 70 in talent won the national championship. The only blemish in 2026 is a 19-15 loss to Ohio State.

“I plan on retiring as a Hoosier.”— Curt Cignetti, on his October 2025 extension (CBS Sports)

UCLA fired its coach three games into 2025. His replacement hasn't lost.

Record

9-0. Previous three UCLA seasons: 16-21. At JMU: 21-6 with a 2025 CFP berth

SP+ before → now

#98 (−8.7) → #11 (20.2). Defense #6

Talent vs. results

Talent #26 in 2025, #25 in 2026, essentially the same roster strength

Vs. AP Top 25

1-0 (17-15 at No. 13 Oregon)

Contract

5 years, $33.75M ($6.75M average); 75% of remaining base and talent fee owed if fired without cause

Identity: defense first. UCLA allowed 0.21 EPA per play in 2025 and allows −0.17 now, second-best in FBS and the largest one-year defensive improvement in the country. The Bruins have allowed 24 points or fewer in eight of nine games, so an offense ranked No. 29 in SP+ is enough.

Roster: he imported his operating system. Eleven of UCLA's 43 incoming 2026 transfers came from James Madison. Cal general manager Ron Rivera said UCLA "brought probably half of the team"; the portal data says about a quarter of the incoming class. The 2026 high school class ranked No. 62.

Defining moment: Week 6 at Autzen Stadium, UCLA 17, No. 13 Oregon 15. The Bruins entered unranked in the first weeks of the season and are No. 4 in both the AP poll and CFP rankings.

Why A, not A+: it is the biggest same-roster turnaround in the sport, but it is nine games, one ranked win, and postgame win expectancy says this is an 8-1 team that has gone 9-0. He is the first sitting head coach to leave a job for UCLA since Pepper Rodgers in 1971 (Los Angeles Times).

Replacing a 21-year legend is supposed to be the hardest job in coaching. Scalley's Utes are 9-0.

Record

9-0. Previous three Utah seasons: 24-14

SP+ before → now

#8 (22.2) → #9 (21.5). Offense #6, defense #19

Talent vs. results

Talent #58, the lowest of any team in the SP+ top 10

Vs. AP Top 25

2-0 (No. 14 Houston, No. 7 BYU)

Contract

5 years, $27M, up to $36M with incentives (KSL)

Identity: a 10-year defensive coordinator whose team wins with offense. Utah's offensive EPA per play is 0.29 and its offense ranks No. 6 in SP+. The defense is good (No. 19), not the old Whittingham wall, so this is a different Utah on the same foundation.

Roster: Utah is winning with less. Its talent composite slipped from No. 44 to No. 58, while Scalley's first class ranked No. 27, the program's best since 2023.

Defining moment: Week 10, Utah 28, No. 7 BYU 20. Utah is No. 2 in the AP poll and the CFP rankings.

Why A: the transition was messy. Public records show Whittingham stepped down after Utah's proposed 2026 terms would have given Scalley control of recruiting and roster decisions (Deseret News). The successor then went 9-0. Not an A+ because the Utes are 1.3 wins ahead of postgame win expectancy (7.7), including a 27-24 escape at Colorado.

Wake Forest spends in the ACC's lower third, by its own coach's account. It is 8-1.

Record

17-5 (9-4, 8-1). Previous three seasons: 16-21

SP+ before → now

#93 (−5.7) in 2024 → #12 (20.0)

Talent vs. results

Talent #63, SP+ #12

Vs. AP Top 25

2-2

Contract

Long-term extension announced Nov 12, 2026; years and terms not disclosed (Wake Forest is a private institution).

Identity: balance with an explosive edge. Wake's offensive EPA per play went from 0.09 to 0.39, tied with Miami for the best in FBS, and it ranks No. 12 in offensive SP+ and No. 23 on defense.

Roster: portal and revenue share. Wake took 33 incoming transfers in 2025 and 24 in 2026, and the high school class jumped from No. 63 to No. 39. Dickert told Fox Sports Wake's roster spending ranks in the "lower third" of the ACC.

Defining moment: Week 4, a 30-27 road win at No. 16 Louisville. The only loss is 33-20 to then-No. 5 Miami.

Why A: a 25.7-point SP+ lift in two years at the smallest school in the Power Four, and year one (9-4 with a Duke's Mayo Bowl win over Mississippi State) was not a fluke. Wake is No. 11 in the AP poll and No. 13 in the CFP.

“We didn't come here to leave.”— Jake Dickert to Fox Sports, November 2026

Oklahoma State went 1-11. Then it hired the first sitting FBS head coach in school history.

Record

6-3. Previous three seasons: 14-24

SP+ before → now

#121 (−15.1) → #20 (15.5). Offense #3

Talent vs. results

Talent #65, SP+ #20

Vs. AP Top 25

1-1 (beat No. 6 Oregon; lost by 3 at No. 20 Houston)

Contract

5 years through Jan. 31, 2031; $3.8M in 2026

Identity: the offense that led FBS in scoring and total offense at North Texas in 2025 came with him. It ranks No. 3 in SP+, and offensive EPA per play went from −0.07 to 0.25. The defense ranks No. 64, which explains losses by 14, 3 and 2 points.

Roster: a full flip, with 55 incoming transfers and 65 outgoing in 2026. Sixteen of the newcomers followed him from North Texas.

Defining moment: Week 2, Oklahoma State 39, No. 6 Oregon 31, one week after losing at Tulsa.

Why A-: the biggest one-year SP+ jump of any 2026 hire (+30.6) at a fraction of peer salaries. The defense and two one-possession losses (35-32 at Houston, 51-49 at Iowa State) keep it from an A.

New Mexico has the 112th-most talented roster in FBS and the best defense in the country by EPA.

Record

17-5 (9-4, 8-1). Previous three seasons: 11-25

SP+ before → now

#116 (−14.8) in 2024 → #23 (14.4). Defense #7

Talent vs. results

Talent #112, SP+ #23, the widest positive gap of any coach on this list

Vs. AP Top 25

0-2

Contract

5 years, $8.75M; buyout $4M through 2026 (CBS Sports reports a clause may halve it)

Identity: a defensive monster built by a former offensive line coach. UNM's defensive EPA per play went from 0.31 to −0.19, best in FBS. Entering November it led the nation at 11.9 points allowed per game and plus-17 in turnover margin (CBS Sports), then won 31-3 at Nevada. It has done this without starting quarterback Jack Layne, out for the season after a second elbow surgery.

Roster: Eck brought his Idaho core, including Layne, center Kaden Robnett and his son, linebacker Jaxton Eck. The 2026 high school class (No. 87) is UNM's best since at least 2021.

Defining moment: Week 3 of 2025 at the Rose Bowl, New Mexico 35, UCLA 10. The Lobos then reached their first bowl since 2016 and are now ranked for the first time in school history (No. 23 AP).

Why A-: the biggest talent-to-production overachievement in the sport. Not an A because UNM is 0-2 against ranked teams and plays a Mountain West schedule.

He inherited a winning Duke and hung a banner.

Record

25-11 (9-4, 9-5, 7-2). Previous three seasons: 20-18

SP+ before → now

#29 (9.4) in 2023 → #32 (13.0)

Talent vs. results

Talent #69, SP+ #32

Vs. AP Top 25

1-6

Identity: a program that finds a way rather than one that dominates. The offense ranked No. 71 in SP+ in 2024, No. 19 in 2025 and No. 35 now; the defense has gone No. 31, No. 86, No. 26.

Roster: the 2025 class ranked No. 30, Duke's best in this data set; the 2026 class fell to No. 71.

Defining moment: the 2025 ACC Championship, Duke 27, No. 16 Virginia 20, followed by a 42-39 Sun Bowl win over Arizona State.

Why B+: a conference title is the point of the job. A 1-6 record against ranked teams is why it isn't an A.

A first-time head coach took a 5-7 SEC team to 7-2 and No. 11 in the CFP.

Record

7-2. Previous three seasons: 16-21

SP+ before → now

#66 (1.8) → #41 (8.3)

Talent vs. results

Talent #23, SP+ #41; results still trail the roster

Vs. AP Top 25

2-2 (won at No. 9 Texas A&M, beat No. 10 LSU)

Contract

5 years, $28.5M; Kentucky also owes Mark Stoops nearly $37.7M (AP)

Identity: the former Oregon offensive coordinator fixed the offense first, from No. 80 in SP+ to No. 36, with offensive EPA per play up from 0.03 to 0.16.

Roster: 31 incoming transfers; the 2026 high school class fell to No. 60 during the transition.

Defining moment: Week 6, Kentucky 35, No. 10 LSU 34, one week after a 35-34 win at South Carolina.

Why B+: two top-10 wins and a 7-2 record. SP+ still rates Kentucky No. 41, and the 34-6 loss at Tennessee shows the gap.

His first Houston offense ranked 118th in SP+. Now it ranks 14th.

Record

21-13 (4-8, 10-3, 7-2). Previous three seasons: 24-15

SP+ before → now

#94 (−7.8) in 2023 → #25 (14.1)

Talent vs. results

Talent #57, SP+ #25

Vs. AP Top 25

3-6

Identity: offensive EPA per play went from 0.04 the year before he arrived to 0.30 now, and the offense ranks No. 14 in SP+.

Roster: the 2026 class ranked No. 38, Houston's best in this data set.

Defining moment: the 2025 Texas Bowl, Houston 38, LSU 35.

Why B+: a 21.9-point SP+ lift and a No. 14 AP ranking. Losses to ranked teams (3-6) cap it.

LSU is 6-3 and No. 21 in the CFP. SP+ says it is the seventh-best team in the country.

Record

6-3. Previous three seasons: 26-13

SP+ before → now

#32 (10.3) → #7 (22.9). Offense #12, defense #9

Talent vs. results

Talent #8, SP+ #7

Vs. AP Top 25

2-2

Contract

7 years, $91M ($13M a year); 80% of remaining pay owed if fired without cause

Identity: the offense came back to life, from No. 75 in SP+ to No. 12, with EPA per play up from 0.03 to 0.22, while the defense held near its 2025 level (No. 11 to No. 9).

Roster: 44 incoming transfers (six from Ole Miss) and the No. 11 high school class.

Defining moment: Week 1, LSU 51, Clemson 10. The low point: 31-13 at home to No. 9 Alabama.

Why B: the process grades out, the results don't yet. Postgame win expectancy says LSU should be about 7-2, and the losses came by 8, 1 and 18. Texas visits Saturday.

Penn State fired him. Virginia Tech is 6-3 with him.

Record

6-3. Previous three seasons: 16-22

SP+ before → now

#105 (−10.1) → #46 (6.6)

Talent vs. results

Talent #27 (up from #40), SP+ #46

Vs. AP Top 25

0-0

Contract

5 years, at least $41.75M; supplemental pay rises from $5.5M in 2026 to $12.75M in 2030 (ESPN)

Identity: improvement on both sides, with offensive EPA per play up from 0.10 to 0.21 and defensive EPA allowed down from 0.24 to 0.12.

Roster: 29 incoming transfers, 12 from Penn State, and a No. 30 high school class.

Defining moment: Week 8, Virginia Tech 20, Clemson 16, at Clemson.

Why B: a 16.7-point SP+ jump, the third-largest among 2026 Power Four hires. No ranked wins and a 51-28 loss at SMU keep it at B.

Year one was 4-8. Years two and three are 16-6.

Record

20-14 (4-8, 9-4, 7-2). Previous three seasons: 16-21

SP+ before → now

#18 (14.1) in 2023 → #82 in 2024 → #21 (15.4)

Talent vs. results

Talent #54, SP+ #21

Vs. AP Top 25

2-7

Identity: the defense was rebuilt, from 0.17 EPA allowed per play in 2024 to −0.01 now.

Roster: the 2026 class ranked No. 42, up from No. 85 in his first cycle.

Defining moment: Week 8 of 2026, Arizona 39, Iowa State 3.

Why B: he took over a 10-3 team whose coach (Jedd Fisch) left for Washington and it cratered, which counts against him. The rebuild since counts for more. Arizona is No. 22 in the AP poll.

Following Nick Saban was always going to be graded on a curve.

Record

27-10 (9-4, 11-4, 7-2). Previous three seasons: 36-6

SP+ before → now

#7 in 2023 → #4 → #20 → #8 (22.7)

Talent vs. results

Talent #4, SP+ #8

Vs. AP Top 25

10-6

Identity: offense restored, ranking No. 10 in SP+ after falling to No. 36 in 2025.

Roster: high school classes of No. 2, No. 3 and No. 2.

Defining moment: the 2025 CFP, a 34-24 win at No. 13 Oklahoma, then a 38-3 loss to Indiana in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal. In 2026, a 31-13 win at No. 15 LSU.

Why B-: No. 3 in the CFP with a top-five roster is where Alabama should be. The 2025 SP+ dip and the Rose Bowl loss hold the grade down; a playoff run moves it.

The defense is elite. The offense is No. 99 in SP+.

Record

5-4. Previous three Michigan seasons: 32-9

SP+ before → now

#25 (12.4) → #36 (10.0). Defense #3, offense #99

Talent vs. results

Talent #11, SP+ #36

Vs. AP Top 25

1-2 (beat No. 11 Oklahoma 17-10)

Contract

5 years, about $8.2M a year on average (ESPN)

Identity: Michigan's defensive EPA per play (−0.08) is fifth-best in FBS. The offense scored 14 points or fewer in three of the four losses.

Roster: 19 incoming transfers, five from Utah; the 2026 class ranked No. 12.

Defining moment: Week 10, Michigan State 15, Michigan 6, in Ann Arbor.

Why C+: the defense is what Michigan hired, and the four losses came by a combined 23 points. The offense decides whether this becomes a B. (Full story in our Whittingham deep dive.)

Two top-10 wins. Four blowout losses.

Record

5-4. Previous three seasons: 17-20

SP+ before → now

#63 (3.5) → #47 (5.9)

Talent vs. results

Talent #10, SP+ #47

Vs. AP Top 25

2-2 (beat No. 4 Ole Miss 52-28, won 27-24 at No. 7 Texas)

Contract

6 years, $44.7M ($7.45M a year); 70% owed if fired without cause

Identity: the offense improved (EPA per play 0.05 to 0.19); the defense (No. 52 in SP+) has not.

Roster: 27 incoming transfers, 36 outgoing; the 2026 class ranked No. 17.

Defining moment: Week 7, Florida 27, No. 7 Texas 24, in Austin.

Why C+: the ceiling is real, but the losses came by 28, 19, 19 and 16 points, and a top-10 roster ranks No. 47 in SP+.

One of the wins of the year, inside a season SP+ rates worse than the one he inherited.

Record

5-4. Previous three seasons: 16-21

SP+ before → now

#29 (11.6) → #60 (2.8)

Talent vs. results

Talent #18, SP+ #60

Vs. AP Top 25

1-3

Contract

6 years, $44.25M guaranteed, rising from $6.75M to $8M (FootballScoop)

Identity: the offense ranks No. 85 in SP+ and defensive EPA allowed rose from 0.02 to 0.12.

Roster: 39 incoming transfers, 13 from South Florida, and a No. 31 class.

Defining moment: 27-24 at No. 1 Georgia, on Alex McPherson's 34-yard field goal as time expired (AP).

Why C: postgame win expectancy says Auburn is a 3.6-win team; it has five. The Georgia win is real, and so is the decline.

From an 11-0 start to 4-5 in twelve months.

Record

23-12 (8-5, 11-2, 4-5). Previous three seasons: 20-17

SP+ before → now

#16 in 2023 → #9 in 2025 → #41 (8.3)

Talent vs. results

Talent #7, SP+ #41

Vs. AP Top 25

5-8 (0-4 in 2026)

Identity: the offense ranks No. 63 in SP+ after ranking No. 11 in 2025.

Roster: top-20 high school classes all three years (No. 19, No. 9, No. 10).

Defining moment: 2025 started 11-0 and ended with a 10-3 CFP first-round loss to Miami. In 2026, the four losses to ranked teams came by a combined 69 points.

Why C: a top-10 roster playing like a No. 41 team. Elko has publicly backed quarterback Marcel Reed (Yahoo Sports).

Penn State's roster talent fell 16 spots in one transition. So did its results.

Record

5-4 (2-4 Big Ten). Previous three seasons: 30-12

SP+ before → now

#15 (18.1) → #38 (9.3)

Talent vs. results

Talent #10 → #26; SP+ #38

Vs. AP Top 25

0-1

Contract

8 years, $70.5M guaranteed, $8M in 2026 plus a $1M annual retention bonus (StateCollege.com)

Identity: Penn State has led or been tied in five of six Big Ten games and won two. It has been outscored 80-44 after halftime and 42-9 in third quarters of conference games (Reading Eagle).

Roster: 38 incoming transfers and 48 outgoing, with 23 newcomers following him from Iowa State. The 2026 high school class ranked No. 65.

Defining moment: four straight losses (Wisconsin, at Northwestern, USC, at Michigan) after a 3-0 start.

Why C-: a 16-spot drop in roster talent, tied for the largest among these hires, on a $70.5M guarantee.

“It's a real problem, I'll be honest with you... We have to figure it out and it starts with the head football coach.”— Matt Campbell, Nov. 10, 2026 (Reading Eagle)

The field results are recovering. The premise of the hire is not.

Record

9-12 (4-8, 5-4). Previous three seasons: 23-17

SP+ before → now

#49 (5.0) in 2024 → #91 in 2025 → #50 (5.3)

Talent vs. results

Talent #28, SP+ #50

Vs. AP Top 25

1-3

Contract

5 years, $50M; only the first three years guaranteed, about $10M owed if fired without cause after 2026 (USA Today)

Identity: the 2025 offense ranked No. 123 in SP+. It is No. 49 now.

Roster: 39 incoming and 55 outgoing transfers in 2025; the 2026 high school class ranked No. 19.

Defining moment: a September 2026 internal investigation ended with the resignations of general manager Michael Lombardi and defensive coordinator Steve Belichick (USA Today).

Why D+: the on-field arrow is up, back to the 2024 level, but the hire was sold on an NFL-style operation, and that operation is gone.

“I have never seen any contract where there is a three-year guarantee and no guarantee in the last two years.”— Sports lawyer Martin Greenberg, to USA Today

Three years, 11-23, and 2-13 against ranked teams.

Record

11-23 (2-10, 5-8, 4-5). Previous three seasons: 21-17

SP+ before → now

#62 (0.5) in 2023 → #56 (3.8)

Talent vs. results

Talent #20, SP+ #56

Vs. AP Top 25

2-13

Identity: offensive SP+ rose to No. 39 in 2025, then fell to No. 54; the defense has not ranked better than No. 61 in his tenure.

Roster: high school classes of No. 28, No. 28 and No. 23, recruiting that should produce more.

Defining moment: 2025 opened with a win over No. 12 Arizona State and ended with a 43-29 Duke's Mayo Bowl loss to Dickert's Wake Forest. In 2026, a 31-0 loss at LSU.

Why D: three seasons, no winning record, and the talent ranks 36 spots above the results.

Arkansas promised new money. Year one has produced a worse team.

Record

3-6. Previous three seasons: 13-24

SP+ before → now

#53 (5.1) → #88 (−3.6)

Talent vs. results

Talent #36, SP+ #88

Vs. AP Top 25

0-4

Contract

5 years, $33.5M; 70% of remaining value owed if fired without cause (Democrat-Gazette)

Identity: offensive EPA per play collapsed from 0.25 to 0.04.

Roster: 42 incoming and 43 outgoing transfers, seven from Memphis.

Defining moment: 43-10 at Utah in Week 2. Rock bottom: a 26-23 loss at Auburn.

Why D: the program got worse by every measure in this story.

Iowa State hired a defensive coach. Its defense fell 68 spots.

Record

4-5. Previous three seasons: 26-13

SP+ before → now

#33 (9.9) → #81 (−2.3). Defense #25 → #93

Talent vs. results

Talent #68, SP+ #81

Vs. AP Top 25

1-4

Contract

$3M annual base through Jan. 31, 2032 (KCCI)

Identity: defensive EPA allowed per play rose from 0.01 to 0.18.

Roster: 48 incoming and 55 outgoing transfers, 15 newcomers from Washington State.

Defining moment: 39-3 at Arizona in Week 8.

Why D-: a 12.2-point SP+ drop at a program that had won 26 games in three years.

Tulane went from the playoff to 4-5.

Record

4-5. Previous three seasons: 31-11

SP+ before → now

#45 (6.3) → #114 (−11.7)

Talent vs. results

Talent #70, SP+ #114

Vs. AP Top 25

0-0

Identity: offensive EPA per play halved, from 0.17 to 0.08.

Roster: promoted from Tulane's passing game coordinator; previously 14-30 as Southern Miss head coach in FBS games (CFBD).

Defining moment: Week 10, Tulsa 60, Tulane 10.

Why D-: the largest one-year SP+ drop (−18.0) of any 2026 hire.

Cal's own general manager says the first-time head coach "has bumped his head a lot."

Record

3-6. Previous three seasons: 19-20

SP+ before → now

#80 (−3.2) → #113 (−11.4)

Talent vs. results

Talent #33, SP+ #113, the worst gap of any coach on this list

Vs. AP Top 25

0-2

Contract

5 years, $22.6M

Identity: the offense ranks No. 108 in SP+. Lupoi stripped his offensive coordinator of play-calling at halftime of the UNLV loss and later benched quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele before regaining him as the starter (CBS Sports).

Roster: 32 incoming transfers averaging a 0.870 rating, one of the better portal hauls in this story, which makes the results harder to explain.

Defining moment: the 45-24 opening loss to Chesney's UCLA set the comparison Cal can't escape.

Why D-: an 80-spot gap between talent and production is the worst on this list.

“He has bumped his head a lot.”— Cal general manager Ron Rivera on KNBR (CBS Sports, Nov. 6, 2026)

Two seasons, 9-15, and roughly $33 million in buyout money.

Record

9-15 (5-7, 4-8). Previous three seasons: 20-17

SP+ before → after

#87 (−6.8) in 2023 → #82 (−3.4) in 2025

Talent vs. results

Talent #27 in 2023, #38 in 2025

Vs. AP Top 25

0-6

Buyout

About $33M (85% of remaining pay, with mitigation), per mlive and the Detroit Free Press

Identity: the 2024 offense ranked No. 119 in SP+.

Roster: high school classes fell from No. 42 to No. 57.

Defining moment: fired Nov. 30, 2025.

Why F: no lift, no ranked wins and the largest buyout bill on this list.

Promoted to keep continuity; fired at 0-7.

Record

5-14 (5-7, 0-7). Previous three seasons: 25-14

SP+ before → after

#19 (12.6) in 2023 → #126 (−15.9) in 2025

Vs. AP Top 25

1-4

Identity: the offense fell from No. 26 in SP+ in 2023 to No. 125 in 2025.

Roster: high school classes of No. 87 and No. 64.

Defining moment: fired Oct. 12, 2025 after an 0-7 start, the program's worst since 1991 (AP).

Why F: the largest SP+ collapse of any hire in this story (−28.5).

Fired three games into year two. Then UCLA proved the roster wasn't the problem.

Record

5-10 (5-7, 0-3). Previous three seasons: 25-13

SP+ before → after

#27 (9.7) in 2023 → #98 (−8.7) in 2025

Talent vs. results

Talent #29 in 2024, #26 in 2025

Vs. AP Top 25

0-3

Identity: the offense ranked No. 103 in SP+ in 2024 and No. 105 in 2025.

Roster: the 2024 high school class ranked No. 90.

Defining moment: fired three games and 10 losses into a 15-game tenure (FootballScoop).

Why F: UCLA's talent rank barely moved (#26 to #25) when Chesney took over, and SP+ rose 87 spots. That is the cleanest coaching control group in the sport.

He beat Ohio State. The hire still ended in a for-cause firing.

Record

17-8 (8-5, 9-3). Previous three seasons: 40-3

SP+ before → after

#1 (31.3) in 2023 → #26 in 2024 → #25 (12.4) in 2025

Vs. AP Top 25

3-6

Identity: defense held (No. 10 and No. 15 in SP+), but the 2024 offense ranked No. 93.

Roster: the 2025 high school class ranked No. 6.

Defining moment: on the field, 13-10 at No. 2 Ohio State in 2024 and a ReliaQuest Bowl win over No. 17 Alabama. Off it, fired for cause on Dec. 10, 2025 after a university investigation found an inappropriate relationship with a staff member; the termination letter also alleged dishonesty during the investigation (CBS Sports, Detroit Free Press).

Why F: whatever the on-field grade, a hire that ends in a for-cause firing after two seasons has failed.