Week 11 Slate
The model

Model Picks

Projected scores, win probability, and where the model disagrees with the market, graded in public. Straight up, against the spread, and on totals.

Example dataEvery pick on this page is a clearly labeled sample row (fake teams) so you can see how the board works. Add your model's weekly CSV to src/data/model-picks/, delete the EXAMPLE-*.csv files, and this page becomes your real model board. Format is in the README and at the bottom of this page.
Season · all leagues
5-3Straight up62.5%
6-2ATS75.0%
6-1-1Totals85.7%
CFB
3-2SU
4-1ATS
NFL
2-1SU
2-1ATS
By confidence (ATS)
5 · Elite2-0
4 · Strong2-0
3 · Solid0-2
2 · Lean2-0
1 · Coin flip0-0
League

17 picks

2026 · Week 11

CFB · Wk 11Big TenExampleElite
Sample State30
@ Demo University23

Projected score

Model pickSample State
72% win prob.
Market
Demo University +2.5
Model line
Demo University +7
Spread edge
4.5 pts · Sample State -2.5
Total edge
Over 51.5 · 1.5 pts

EXAMPLE ROW — not a real pick

NFL · Wk 11NFCExampleElite
Placeholder Bison17
@ Example City Sharks24

Projected score

Model pickExample City Sharks
73% win prob.
Market
Example City Sharks -5.5
Model line
Example City Sharks -7
Spread edge
1.5 pts · Example City Sharks -5.5
Total edge
Under 42 · 1 pts

EXAMPLE ROW — not a real pick

CFB · Wk 11SECExampleStrong
Placeholder A&M21
@ Example Tech28

Projected score

Model pickExample Tech
69% win prob.
Market
Example Tech -3.5
Model line
Example Tech -7
Spread edge
3.5 pts · Example Tech -3.5
Total edge
Over 47.5 · 1.5 pts

EXAMPLE ROW — not a real pick

CFB · Wk 11ACCExampleStrong
Fixture Tech17
@ Specimen U27

Projected score

Model pickSpecimen U
76% win prob.
Market
Specimen U -6.5
Model line
Specimen U -10
Spread edge
3.5 pts · Specimen U -6.5
Total edge
Under 45 · 1 pts

EXAMPLE ROW — not a real pick

NFL · Wk 11AFCExampleStrong
Sample Bay Pilots20
@ Demo Valley Hawks26

Projected score

Model pickDemo Valley Hawks
70% win prob.
Market
Demo Valley Hawks -3
Model line
Demo Valley Hawks -6
Spread edge
3 pts · Demo Valley Hawks -3
Total edge
Over 45.5 · 0.5 pts

EXAMPLE ROW — not a real pick

CFB · Wk 11G6ExampleSolid
Example Coastal24
@ Sample Southern35

Projected score

Model pickSample Southern
81% win prob.
Market
Sample Southern -13.5
Model line
Sample Southern -11
Spread edge
2.5 pts · Example Coastal +13.5
Total edge
Under 60.5 · 1.5 pts

EXAMPLE ROW — not a real pick

CFB · Wk 11IndependentExampleSolid
Demo Academy26
@ Mock Tech20

Projected score

Model pickDemo Academy
66% win prob.
Market
Mock Tech +3
Model line
Mock Tech +6
Spread edge
3 pts · Demo Academy -3
Total edge
Over 44.5 · 1.5 pts

EXAMPLE ROW — not a real pick

CFB · Wk 11Big 12ExampleLean
Mock State27
@ Testing College29

Projected score

Model pickTesting College
56% win prob.
Market
Testing College -1
Model line
Testing College -2
Spread edge
1 pts · Testing College -1
Total edge
Under 58.5 · 2.5 pts

EXAMPLE ROW — not a real pick

NFL · Wk 11AFC/NFCExampleCoin flip
Testing Plains Riders24
@ Mock Harbor Kings22

Projected score

Model pickTesting Plains Riders
54% win prob.
Market
Mock Harbor Kings +1.5
Model line
Mock Harbor Kings +2
Spread edge
0.5 pts · Testing Plains Riders -1.5
Total edge
Under 46.5 · 0.5 pts

EXAMPLE ROW — not a real pick

2026 · Week 10

CFB · Wk 10SECExampleElite
Example Tech17
@ Sample State34

Final · model projected 20-31

Model pickSample StateWon
78% win prob.
Market
Sample State -7.5
Model line
Sample State -11
Spread edge
3.5 pts · Sample State -7.5 W
Total edge
Over 48.5 · 2.5 pts W

EXAMPLE ROW — not a real pick

CFB · Wk 10G6ExampleElite
Sample Southern38
@ Example Coastal21

Final · model projected 34-24

Model pickSample SouthernWon
80% win prob.
Market
Example Coastal +6.5
Model line
Example Coastal +10
Spread edge
3.5 pts · Sample Southern -6.5 W
Total edge
Under 61.5 · 3.5 pts W

EXAMPLE ROW — not a real pick

CFB · Wk 10Big 12ExampleStrong
Testing College20
@ Mock State27

Final · model projected 23-30

Model pickMock StateWon
71% win prob.
Market
Mock State -3
Model line
Mock State -7
Spread edge
4 pts · Mock State -3 W
Total edge
Under 55.5 · 2.5 pts W

EXAMPLE ROW — not a real pick

NFL · Wk 10NFCExampleStrong
Demo Valley Hawks30
@ Placeholder Bison17

Final · model projected 27-21

Model pickDemo Valley HawksWon
68% win prob.
Market
Placeholder Bison +3.5
Model line
Placeholder Bison +6
Spread edge
2.5 pts · Demo Valley Hawks -3.5 W
Total edge
Over 47 · 1 pts P

EXAMPLE ROW — not a real pick

CFB · Wk 10Big TenExampleSolid
Demo University21
@ Placeholder A&M24

Final · model projected 27-24

Model pickDemo UniversityLost
58% win prob.
Market
Placeholder A&M -1.5
Model line
Placeholder A&M +3
Spread edge
4.5 pts · Demo University +1.5 L
Total edge
Under 52.5 · 1.5 pts W

EXAMPLE ROW — not a real pick

NFL · Wk 10AFCExampleSolid
Example City Sharks23
@ Sample Bay Pilots20

Final · model projected 20-24

Model pickSample Bay PilotsLost
62% win prob.
Market
Sample Bay Pilots -2.5
Model line
Sample Bay Pilots -4
Spread edge
1.5 pts · Sample Bay Pilots -2.5 L
Total edge
Under 44.5 · 0.5 pts W

EXAMPLE ROW — not a real pick

CFB · Wk 10ACCExampleLean
Specimen U28
@ Fixture Tech24

Final · model projected 24-26

Model pickFixture TechLost
55% win prob.
Market
Fixture Tech -4.5
Model line
Fixture Tech -2
Spread edge
2.5 pts · Specimen U +4.5 W
Total edge
Over 46 · 4 pts W

EXAMPLE ROW — not a real pick

NFL · Wk 10AFC/NFCExampleLean
Mock Harbor Kings16
@ Testing Plains Riders23

Final · model projected 19-23

Model pickTesting Plains RidersWon
60% win prob.
Market
Testing Plains Riders -3
Model line
Testing Plains Riders -4
Spread edge
1 pts · Testing Plains Riders -3 W
Total edge
Over 41.5 · 0.5 pts L

EXAMPLE ROW — not a real pick

Model vs. market

Each dot is a game. On the dashed diagonal the model agrees with the market; the farther a dot sits from it, the bigger the spread edge.

Upload your picks

One CSV per week in src/data/model-picks/ (any file name, e.g. 2026-cfb-week-12.csv). Spreadsheet → File → Download → CSV. Columns:

is_example,league,season,week,date,conference,away,home,model_pick,proj_away,proj_home,win_prob,market_spread,market_total,confidence,final_away,final_home,notes
  • league: CFB or NFL
  • model_pick: exact team name of the pick
  • proj_away / proj_home: projected points
  • win_prob: 0.64 or 64
  • market_spread: the HOME team's line (−3.5 = home favored)
  • market_total: posted over/under
  • confidence: 1–5 (5 = Elite)
  • final_away / final_home: leave blank until final, then the records grade themselves
  • is_example: leave blank for real picks

Spread edge = market line − model line (model line = proj_away − proj_home). Total edge = projected total − market total.