Let's talk about it.

[GFX: CFP #13 WAKE FOREST (8-1) at SMU (7-2) | SAT 12:00 ET, ESPN | SMU -1.5, O/U 61]

Thursday morning, Wake Forest handed Jake Dickert a long-term extension. The terms weren't disclosed. The record was: 17-5 in two seasons, 8-1 this year, and a six-game winning streak heading to Dallas.

Saturday, the market is asking him to prove it. This line opened Wake Forest minus two and a half. By Thursday, SMU was the favorite, laying a point and a half at home. The Mustangs are 6-0 at Ford Stadium this season. Kevin Jennings is 16-1 there as a starter. Wake Forest is 4-0 on the road, including a win at then-No. 16 Louisville, and it's one game behind Miami in the ACC, with a path to a rematch in the conference title game.

Key number one: Wake Forest finishes, and SMU doesn't get off the field.
[GFX: WAKE PTS/OPP 5.10 (1st) vs SMU PTS/OPP ALLOWED 4.00 (109th) | CFBD]
When the Demon Deacons reach the opponent's 40, they score 5.10 points per trip, first in the country. SMU allows 4.00, 109th. That's the widest finishing gap on this slate. Wake Forest is also second in EPA per play, fourth in success rate, second in rushing EPA, and third in passing EPA. SMU's run defense is 91st in EPA and 94th in success allowed. If Wake Forest stays on schedule, this becomes a track meet SMU can't slow down.

Key number two: SMU's real answers.
[GFX: SMU PASS SUCCESS ALLOWED 34.5% (8th) | 3RD-DOWN D 29.9% (10th) | SACK RATE 8.5% (20th) | CFBD]
The Mustangs can cover, and they can get off the field. They're eighth in passing success allowed, tenth on third down, and Marques White has 7.5 sacks. That's the plan: stuff a down or two, then let White and that rush hunt on third-and-long. The problem is Wake Forest's down-to-down. It's second in the country on passing downs and ninth on third down, and it allows sacks on just 4.6 percent of dropbacks.

Key number three: Jennings at home against a run-stuffing front.
[GFX: JENNINGS | 73.9% | 9.8 YPA | 25 TD, 6 INT (CFBD)]
Jennings has 2,783 yards, and SMU's pass offense is sixth in EPA and seventh in success rate. Wake Forest's pass defense is 70th in success allowed and 91st in sack rate, so the windows should be there. The catch is everything after the catch. Wake Forest is fifth in stuff rate and fourth in points allowed per opportunity. SMU has to finish drives against a defense built to make you kick. Last year in Winston-Salem, it kicked, and Connor Calvert walked it off from 50.

[GFX: X-FACTOR | GIO LOPEZ]
X-factor: Gio Lopez. He left the Virginia game with a leg injury, sat out a 77-0 win over Merrimack, and Jake Dickert told On3 he's looked "phenomenal" this week and "he'll be ready to go Saturday." Eighteen touchdown passes, one interception, 318 rushing yards. If he's limited, SMU's third-down defense gets the down it wants.

[GFX: THE STAT | 5.10]
The stat: 5.10. Wake Forest's points per scoring opportunity, first in FBS, against a defense that's 109th in the same category.

Prediction: Jennings keeps it close at home, and Wake Forest's offense answers every time. Wake Forest 34, SMU 27.