Let's talk about it.

[GFX: CFP #6 TEXAS (7-2) at #21 LSU (6-3) | SAT 7:30 ET, ABC | LSU -3.5, O/U 45.5]

Here's what makes this one strange. Texas is the higher-ranked team, 4-0 against ranked opponents, riding a three-game win streak. LSU just got handled at home by Alabama, 31-13. And LSU is still the favorite.

That's because the market sees what the rankings don't. Greg McElroy called it "probably the most lopsided matchup on the board." The numbers back him up.

Key number one: the line of scrimmage.
[GFX: TEXAS OL vs LSU DL | LINE YARDS 130th vs 3rd | STUFF RATE 120th vs 2nd | HAVOC 127th vs 5th | SACK RATE 126th vs 2nd | SOURCE: CFBD]
Four categories. Texas's offense ranks 120th or worse in all four. LSU's defense ranks fifth or better in all four. And Texas does it without left tackle Trevor Goosby, who had surgery October 27th. Texas can't run its way out of trouble, which leaves Arch Manning in obvious dropback situations against Princewill Umanmielen, who has nine sacks and 13 tackles for loss. McElroy says the leaks come on twists and stunts. Sarkisian's answer has to be getting the ball out: quick game, RPOs, moving the launch point, chipping the edges.

Key number two: where drives end.
[B-ROLL: Alabama red-zone stops, Nov 7]
LSU's offense is fifth in the country in success rate. It moves. But it's 118th in explosiveness and 48th in points per scoring opportunity. Against Alabama: 380 passing yards, 13 points, oh-for-four on fourth down. Texas's defense is built for exactly that. It's 11th in explosiveness allowed, fourth on passing downs, and fifth in points allowed per opportunity. LSU has to drive the length of the field, and Texas makes it kick.

Key number three: Texas's quiet strength. When the Longhorns get inside the opponent's 40, they score 4.58 points per trip, 10th in the country. Texas doesn't need many drives. It needs a few that survive first down.

[GFX: X-FACTOR | COLIN SIMMONS | 10 SACKS, 15.5 TFL (CFBD)]
X-factor: Colin Simmons, back from a high ankle sprain. Sam Leavitt has nine interceptions, and LSU allows havoc on 14.7 percent of plays, 73rd. One Simmons strip-sack and the whole script flips. Also watch LSU linebacker Whit Weeks, its green dot, upgraded to questionable after missing five games. LSU lost its last two games without him.

[GFX: THE STAT | 126th]
The stat: 126th. Texas's national rank in sack rate allowed, going against the No. 2 pass rush by sack rate.

And the subplot writes itself. A Manning from New Orleans, in the stadium he grew up visiting, against the coach who recruited him. Sarkisian says Arch "doesn't give a crap" about the homecoming. Good. He'll need that.

Prediction: Texas keeps LSU kicking field goals for three quarters, and LSU's front wins the fourth. LSU 23, Texas 20.