Missouri at Georgia: Unit vs. Unit Breakdown

#22Missouri

atGeorgia -14 to -15.5

#1Georgia

Sat Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET, ABC, Sanford Stadium

Our callGeorgia 31, Missouri 16

Missouri's quick game keeps it close for a half, and Georgia's run defense takes over after that. Georgia 31, Missouri 16.

Line: Georgia -14 to -15.5, total 46.5–47.5 (BetMGM via BetMGM blog and SI, Nov 9–11)
Records: Georgia 8-1 (6-1 SEC), Missouri 6-3 (3-3 SEC)
Why it's here: No. 1 in the country, final SEC home game, a step from the last SEC Championship Game ever.
Injuries to watch: Missouri WR Cayden Lee not on the first SEC availability report (knee scare vs Texas)

Unit vs. Unit 1

Georgia OvsMissouri D

1050

Georgia offenseEvenMissouri defense

Georgia OMetricMissouri D

+0.294#8EPA/playEdge: Georgia#26+0.002

52.1%#3Success rateEdge: Georgia#1936.2%

1.15#117ExplosivenessEven#1111.33

+0.233#11Rush EPAEven#18-0.074

53.6%#2Rush successEdge: Georgia#2837.7%

+0.444#9Pass EPAEdge: Georgia#44+0.115

51.3%#13Pass successEven#1936.2%

3.60#2Line yardsEven#62.36

11.8%#3Stuff rateEdge: Georgia#1923.4%

12.0%#15HavocEven#1119.7%

4.1%#30Sack rateEdge: Georgia#626.6%

40.0%#8Passing-downs successEdge: Georgia#3526.8%

52.4%#6Third downEdge: Georgia#7238.7%

4.88#5Pts per opportunityEdge: Georgia#483.24

40.5#4SP+ unit ratingEdge: Georgia#1816.4

Edge verdict

Georgia offense. The run-game fight is close to even, but Georgia's 9th-ranked passing EPA against Missouri's 44th, and Georgia's 4.88 points per opportunity (5th) against Missouri's 3.24 allowed (48th), decide it.

Key personnel

Gunner Stockton (70.9%, 9.5 yards per attempt, 20 TD, 4 INT per CFBD) behind a line that's 2nd in line yards and 3rd in stuff rate allowed, against a Missouri front that's 6th in line yards allowed and 11th in havoc.

Scheme clash

Strength on strength at the point of attack. Georgia is 117th in explosiveness, so it isn't hunting shots. It stays on schedule (53.6% rushing success, 2nd) and converts (52.4% on third down, 6th). Missouri's front can play with that run game; the soft spots are behind it, with the pass defense 44th in EPA and the third-down defense 72nd.

Percentile profile · Georgia offense vs Missouri defense

Percentile = national rank converted to 0–100 (100 = best unit in FBS). Hover a point for the raw value.

Unit vs. Unit 2

Missouri OvsGeorgia D

1113

Missouri offenseEvenGeorgia defense

Missouri OMetricGeorgia D

+0.160#56EPA/playEdge: Georgia#16-0.025

40.7%#92Success rateEdge: Georgia#1435.3%

1.28#51ExplosivenessEdge: Missouri#741.25

+0.048#95Rush EPAEdge: Georgia#4-0.162

37.8%#118Rush successEdge: Georgia#1334.0%

+0.318#40Pass EPAEdge: Georgia#25+0.061

43.5%#57Pass successEdge: Georgia#2136.3%

2.94#90Line yardsEdge: Georgia#252.63

19.5%#96Stuff rateEdge: Georgia#8218.1%

15.3%#76HavocEdge: Georgia#1918.8%

2.6%#8Sack rateEven#129.6%

29.1%#91Passing-downs successEdge: Georgia#1123.8%

39.1%#81Third downEdge: Georgia#5035.9%

3.44#94Pts per opportunityEdge: Georgia#102.52

30.1#44SP+ unit ratingEdge: Georgia#19.4

Edge verdict

Georgia defense, clearly, and the widest gap in this game: Missouri's 118th-ranked rushing success against Georgia's 4th-ranked rush defense by EPA, and Missouri's 3.44 points per opportunity (94th) against Georgia's 2.52 allowed (10th).

Key personnel

RB Jamal Roberts (1,071 yds, 5.1 per carry, 9 TD, long of 80), QB Austin Simmons (7.8 yards per attempt, 18 TD, 2 INT) and WR Cayden Lee (60 rec, 809 yds per CFBD; SEC and media count 62 for 835), all against the No. 1 SP+ defense.

Scheme clash

Missouri's protection plan works: sacks on just 2.6% of dropbacks (8th), consistent with Schumann's line that Simmons 'gets the ball off his hand really fast.' That blunts Georgia's pressure (9.6% sack rate, 12th). The problem is down-to-down. Missouri is 118th in rushing success, so Roberts produces in chunks rather than steady gains, and Georgia is 4th in EPA allowed per rush. Behind the chains, Missouri is 91st on passing downs and Georgia is 11th.

Percentile profile · Missouri offense vs Georgia defense

Percentile = national rank converted to 0–100 (100 = best unit in FBS). Hover a point for the raw value.

CollegeFootballData.com, 2026 season through Nov 11, garbage time excluded. National rank among 138 teams in parentheses (1 = best for that unit). Explosiveness is average EPA on successful plays. Third down and sack rate (sacks ÷ attempts plus sacks) are computed from CFBD season totals. Pts per opportunity = points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. Edge = better-ranked unit; within 10 spots is Even.

Let's Talk About It: the episode

Let's Talk About ItMissouri at GeorgiaEpisode script below · video link coming

Teleprompter script

Let's talk about it.

[GFX: #22 MISSOURI (6-3) at CFP #1 GEORGIA (8-1) | SAT 3:30 ET, ABC | UGA -14.5, O/U 47]

This December is the last SEC Championship Game ever. The playoff goes to 24 teams in 2027, and the league title game goes with it. Georgia is alone in first at 6-1, this is its final SEC home game, and a win puts the Bulldogs a step from a sixth straight trip to Atlanta.

Missouri hasn't beaten Georgia since 2013. Ten straight. But Missouri was tied 20-20 with Texas through three quarters last week. Georgia defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann says Missouri has "a very clear identity." His job Saturday is to take it away.

Key number one: Jamal Roberts against the wall.
[GFX: MIZZOU RUSH SUCCESS 37.8% (118th) vs UGA RUSH EPA ALLOWED (4th) | CFBD]
Roberts leads the SEC with 1,071 yards, but look closer. Missouri ranks 118th in rushing success rate, so Roberts produces in chunks, not down to down. Josh Pate found the split that matters: Missouri is 5-0 against FBS teams when Roberts goes over 100, and 0-3 when he doesn't. Georgia's run defense is fourth in the country in EPA allowed per rush. That's the widest gap in this game.

Key number two: Austin Simmons's clock against Georgia's pressure. Missouri gives up a sack on 2.6 percent of dropbacks, eighth in FBS. Schumann's words: Simmons "gets the ball off his hand really fast." Georgia blitzed Ole Miss into a 42-7 loss, but against a release this quick, the free runner arrives late. Expect disguise instead: walk up six, rush four, make him hold it one extra count. Missouri's real danger is falling behind the chains. On passing downs, Missouri is 91st and Georgia's defense is 11th.

Key number three: strength on strength up front.
[GFX: UGA OL LINE YARDS (2nd) vs MIZZOU DL LINE YARDS ALLOWED (6th)]
Georgia's line is second in line yards and third in stuff rate allowed. Missouri's front is sixth in line yards allowed and 11th in havoc. That one's close. What isn't close: Gunner Stockton, at 9.5 yards per attempt with 20 touchdowns and four picks, against a Missouri pass defense that's 44th in EPA. And Georgia finishes, at 4.88 points per scoring opportunity, fifth nationally.

[GFX: X-FACTOR | CAYDEN LEE]
X-factor: Cayden Lee, Missouri's leading receiver. Drinkwitz says there's no structural damage to the knee, and Lee wasn't on Wednesday's availability report. Missouri needs explosives, not 14-play drives.

[GFX: THE STAT | 0-3]
The stat: 0-3. Missouri against FBS teams when Roberts doesn't reach 100.

Prediction: Missouri's quick game keeps it close for a half, and Georgia's run defense takes over after that. Georgia 31, Missouri 16.

Writer's room: cold-open hooks

The last time Missouri beat Georgia, the iPhone 5s was brand new. That was 2013. Ten straight losses later, the Tigers get one more shot in Athens.
Georgia completed nine passes against Ole Miss. Four of them were touchdowns. That's not an offense. That's a sniper.
This December is the last SEC Championship Game ever. Georgia is trying to book the final reservation. Missouri is trying to cancel it.

Writer's room: exits

Last SEC title game ever. Does anybody besides Georgia have a real shot to be in it? Let's talk about it.
Upset alert or no alert? One word in the comments. Let's talk about it.
Missouri has waited since 2013. Is this the year, or is it eleven straight? Let's talk about it.

Georgia OvsMissouri D

Key personnel

Scheme clash

Missouri OvsGeorgia D

Key personnel

Scheme clash

Let's Talk About It: the episode

Sources