Week 11 Slate
AwayOregon State
atBoise State -13.5
#24Boise State

Sat Nov 14, 6:00 PM ET, USA Network, Albertsons Stadium (ESPN College GameDay on site)

Our callBoise State 38, Oregon State 24

Oregon State runs it well enough to hang around, but Riley and that line win the fourth quarter. Boise State 38, Oregon State 24.

Line
Boise State -13.5 (opened -4.5), total 65.5 (DraftKings via SI, Nov 9, before Atkinson was ruled out)
Records
Boise State 8-1 (5-0 Pac-12), Oregon State 5-4 (3-2 Pac-12)
Why it's here
The only non-autonomy team in the CFP top 25 and today's projected 12 seed. A win clinches a Pac-12 title-game berth and hosting rights.
Injuries to watch
Oregon State QB Braden Atkinson listed doubtful, reported out (Pete Thamel); Maalik Murphy expected to start. Boise QB Maddux Madsen, RB Sire Gaines, S Travis Anderson questionable; LG Carson Rasmussen out.
Unit vs. Unit 1

Boise St. OvsOregon St. D

Boise State offenseEvenOregon State defense
Boise St. OMetricOregon St. D
+0.355#4EPA/playEdge: Boise State#100+0.153
49.4%#15Success rateEdge: Boise State#9043.0%
1.30#43ExplosivenessEven#531.21
+0.262#6Rush EPAEdge: Boise State#104+0.139
49.6%#16Rush successEdge: Boise State#8743.5%
+0.495#5Pass EPAEdge: Boise State#68+0.168
49.0%#22Pass successEdge: Boise State#9142.9%
3.45#7Line yardsEdge: Boise State#803.00
13.0%#11Stuff rateEdge: Boise State#8817.4%
9.0%#3HavocEdge: Boise State#8315.1%
2.7%#9Sack rateEdge: Boise State#776.3%
38.9%#13Passing-downs successEdge: Boise State#8630.8%
53.0%#4Third downEdge: Boise State#11242.5%
4.93#3Pts per opportunityEdge: Boise State#1033.88
38.7#7SP+ unit ratingEdge: Boise State#7827.4
Edge verdict

Boise State offense, by the widest margin of any unit matchup on the slate: 4th vs 100th in EPA per play, 3rd vs 103rd in points per opportunity, and 4th vs 112th on third down.

Key personnel

RB Dylan Riley (1,241 yds, 6.7 per carry, 11 TD, long of 83), freshman WR Rasean Jones (43 rec, 661 yds), and QB Maddux Madsen (questionable) or Max Cutforth (24 of 32, 448 yds, 7 TD in relief), per CFBD. Oregon State edge Takari Hickle (7 sacks, 12.5 TFL) faces a Boise line without LG Carson Rasmussen.

Scheme clash

Boise's line controls games: 7th in line yards, 11th in stuff rate, 3rd in havoc allowed. Oregon State's run defense is 104th in EPA, and Texas State just ran for 386 on it. Expect Boise to stay in its run game until Oregon State commits an extra defender to the box, then attack the coverage behind it. Boise's 5th-ranked passing EPA says that works.

Percentile profile · Boise State offense vs Oregon State defense

Percentile = national rank converted to 0–100 (100 = best unit in FBS). Hover a point for the raw value.

Unit vs. Unit 2

Oregon St. OvsBoise St. D

Oregon State offenseEvenBoise State defense
Oregon St. OMetricBoise St. D
+0.245#23EPA/playEdge: Oregon State#68+0.094
48.0%#23Success rateEven#2837.9%
1.29#49ExplosivenessEdge: Oregon State#1381.58
+0.146#42Rush EPAEdge: Oregon State#92+0.128
53.4%#3Rush successEdge: Oregon State#3037.7%
+0.328#35Pass EPAEdge: Oregon State#48+0.121
46.3%#34Pass successEven#3838.2%
3.41#13Line yardsEdge: Oregon State#492.80
12.7%#9Stuff rateEdge: Oregon State#2123.0%
12.5%#21HavocEdge: Oregon State#4217.2%
4.0%#26Sack rateEdge: Oregon State#766.4%
34.5%#36Passing-downs successEdge: Oregon State#8831.0%
44.3%#33Third downEdge: Boise State#1530.8%
4.56#12Pts per opportunityEdge: Oregon State#603.40
31.6#37SP+ unit ratingEdge: Oregon State#6425.4
Edge verdict

Oregon State offense in the run game, which is its upset path. The catch is the quarterback: every Oregon State passing number in this table was built by a player who won't play. Boise wins this side if it gets Oregon State into third-and-long.

Key personnel

Maalik Murphy (16 of 19, 156 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT this season per CFBD) replaces Braden Atkinson, who's out. WR Jesse Legree (61 rec, 1,209 yds, 14 TD, 19.8 per catch) against Boise S Travis Anderson (3 INT), who's questionable.

Scheme clash

The underdog's real edge is on the ground. Oregon State is 3rd in rushing success, 13th in line yards and 9th in stuff rate, while Boise is 92nd in rush EPA allowed and last of 138 in explosiveness allowed. Oregon State's passing numbers belong to Atkinson, so the plan with Murphy should lean on the run game and take play-action shots to Legree. Boise's counter is third down, where it allows 30.8% (15th).

Percentile profile · Oregon State offense vs Boise State defense

Percentile = national rank converted to 0–100 (100 = best unit in FBS). Hover a point for the raw value.

CollegeFootballData.com, 2026 season through Nov 11, garbage time excluded. National rank among 138 teams in parentheses (1 = best for that unit). Explosiveness is average EPA on successful plays. Third down and sack rate (sacks ÷ attempts plus sacks) are computed from CFBD season totals. Pts per opportunity = points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. Edge = better-ranked unit; within 10 spots is Even.

Let's Talk About It: the episode

Let's Talk About ItOregon State at Boise StateEpisode script below · video link coming
Teleprompter script
Let's talk about it.

[GFX: OREGON STATE (5-4) at CFP #24 BOISE STATE (8-1) | SAT 6:00 ET, USA | BSU -13.5, O/U 65.5 | COLLEGE GAMEDAY]

This is the new Pac-12, eight schools rebuilt from the pieces, and it already has a heavyweight. Boise State is 5-0 in league play. Win Saturday, and the Broncos clinch a spot in the Pac-12 title game and the right to host it. They're the only team from outside the power conferences in the CFP top 25. If the bracket were set today, they'd be the 12 seed, headed to South Bend.

Oregon State had the nation's leading passer in Braden Atkinson. Then it lost back-to-back games to Fresno State and Texas State, and this week ESPN's Pete Thamel reported Atkinson won't play because of a hand injury. Enter Maalik Murphy, the former Texas and Duke quarterback.

Key number one: Boise's offense against everything.
[GFX: BOISE O vs OREGON STATE D | EPA/PLAY 4th vs 100th | PTS/OPP 3rd vs 103rd | 3RD DOWN 4th vs 112th | CFBD]
This is the widest unit mismatch on the whole slate. Dylan Riley leads FBS with 1,241 rushing yards, and Boise's line is seventh in line yards and third in havoc allowed. Oregon State is 104th against the run by EPA, and Texas State just ran for 386 on it. Boise stays in the run game until Oregon State adds a hitter to the box, then throws over it. Boise is fifth in passing EPA.

Key number two: the underdog's real edge.
[GFX: OREGON STATE RUSH SUCCESS 53.4% (3rd) vs BOISE EXPLOSIVENESS ALLOWED (138th of 138)]
Here's the twist. Oregon State runs the ball well: third in rushing success, ninth in stuff rate. And Boise's defense is 92nd in rush EPA allowed and dead last, 138th of 138, in explosiveness allowed. With a backup at quarterback, Oregon State's path is obvious. Run it, then take play-action shots.

Key number three: the quarterbacks. Boise's Maddux Madsen is questionable with a knee injury. If he can't go, Max Cutforth is 24 of 32 for 448 yards in relief. Murphy has thrown 19 passes all season. And Boise's third-down defense, 30.8 percent allowed, 15th, is built to punish the team that falls behind schedule.

[GFX: X-FACTOR | JESSE LEGREE | 1,209 YDS, 14 TD | BOTH NO. 1 FBS]
X-factor: Jesse Legree, at 19.8 yards a catch. Against the defense that gives up the biggest gains in the country, one completion can be a touchdown.

[GFX: THE STAT | 138th]
The stat: 138th. Boise's rank in explosiveness allowed. It's the only reason this isn't a lock.

Prediction: Oregon State runs it well enough to hang around, but Riley and that line win the fourth quarter. Boise State 38, Oregon State 24.
Writer's room: cold-open hooks
  1. College GameDay has been to Boise exactly once: 2010, Oregon State. Sixteen years later, same blue turf, same opponent, a lot more on the line.
  2. The nation's leading passer can't play Saturday. The nation's leading rusher can. That's the whole preview. Let's do it anyway.
  3. One win. That's all Boise State needs to clinch the Pac-12 title game and host it. New conference. Same blue. Same Broncos.
Writer's room: exits
  1. Should the best Group of Six team get more than a 12 seed and a plane ticket to South Bend? Let's talk about it.
  2. Papa Murphy's on the menu in Boise. Does he deliver, or does Dylan Riley eat? Let's talk about it.
  3. GameDay is back on the blue for the first time since 2010. Best sign idea in the comments gets a shoutout next week. Let's talk about it.

Sources

  1. This Week in Pac-12 Football, Week 11Pac-12 Conference ↗
  2. Boise State and Oregon State could feature two backup QBsSports Illustrated ↗
  3. Boise State vs. Oregon State betting oddsSports Illustrated ↗
  4. Oregon State faces enormous test against Dylan RileyOregonLive ↗
  5. Oregon State tries to get its season back on trackIdaho Press ↗
  6. Atkinson out for Boise State gameX ↗
  7. 2026 team advanced stats, SP+ ratings and season statsCollegeFootballData.com ↗