Sat Nov 14, 9:30 PM ET, ESPN, Boone Pickens Stadium
both offenses win their unit matchup, the over is in play by the third quarter, and the last team with the ball wins. Oklahoma State 41, Texas Tech 38.
- Line
- Oklahoma State -3.5, total 72.5 (BetMGM via SI, Nov 11)
- Records
- Texas Tech 8-1 (5-1 Big 12), Oklahoma State 6-3 (4-2 Big 12)
- Why it's here
- Ranked vs ranked, Big 12 title-game race (Tech is one game behind Utah), and the nation's TD-pass leader in prime time.
- Injuries to watch
- Texas Tech WR Coy Eakin out (broken hand, surgery Monday)
Texas Tech OvsOkla. State D
Texas Tech offense. Tech ranks ahead in every efficiency row, and Oklahoma State is 64th in SP+ defense and 102nd in points allowed per opportunity. Tech's risk is self-inflicted: it allows havoc on 17.5% of plays (116th).
Key personnel
Tommy Castellanos (32 of 56, 551 yds, 9 TD, 1 INT; 284 rush yds per CFBD) against Oklahoma State CB LaDainian Fields (7 INT, most in FBS). Tech WR Coy Eakin is out with a broken hand.
Scheme clash
Sample-size warning: most of Tech's season data comes from Will Hammond's starts, before Castellanos took over two games ago. Tech's run game is sound (29th in rushing success, 31st in line yards), and the Castellanos QB run game adds an extra hat to the box count. Oklahoma State's defense is 63rd against the run by success rate and 91st against the pass by EPA. Its strength is takeaways in coverage, led by Fields.
Percentile = national rank converted to 0–100 (100 = best unit in FBS). Hover a point for the raw value.
Okla. State OvsTexas Tech D
Oklahoma State offense, clearly. Its pass offense is 5th in success rate against a Tech pass defense that's 81st, and Tech's rush (38th in sack rate) is unlikely to speed up a quarterback sacked on 2.4% of dropbacks. Tech's one edge is the run fit, and Oklahoma State doesn't need to run.
Key personnel
Drew Mestemaker (66.7%, 9.6 yards per attempt, 29 TD, 8 INT; 3 fumbles lost), RB Caleb Hawkins (1,081 yds, 5.8 per carry; 37 rec, 424 yds) and WR Wyatt Young (46 rec, 763 yds, 8 TD), per CFBD.
Scheme clash
Tech's defense is built to stop the run (18th in rushing success allowed, 25th in stuff rate), which is the part of Oklahoma State's offense it least needs to stop. The Cowboys are 5th in passing success and allow sacks on 2.4% of dropbacks (7th in FBS, second-lowest in the Big 12). Shiel Wood blames Tech's coverage busts on formation adjustments, and Eric Morris varies tempo. Expect formation-into-tempo sequences meant to catch Tech misaligned, especially on passing downs, where Tech is 73rd.
Percentile = national rank converted to 0–100 (100 = best unit in FBS). Hover a point for the raw value.
Let's Talk About It: the episode
Teleprompter script
Let's talk about it. [GFX: CFP #12 TEXAS TECH (8-1) at #25 OKLAHOMA STATE (6-3) | SAT 9:30 ET, ESPN | OSU -3.5, O/U 72.5] Texas Tech was the preseason Big 12 favorite. It's 8-1, a game behind Utah, with a pack of 4-2 teams right behind it. Lose in Stillwater, and the Red Raiders are in a crowd for a spot in the last Big 12 title game. A year ago, Oklahoma State lost to Tech 42-0. Then Eric Morris came over from North Texas with his quarterback and his running back. The Cowboys lost to Tulsa in the opener, then beat Oregon, and they've scored 57, 49 and 66 in their last three. Key number one: Drew Mestemaker against Tech's coverage. [GFX: OSU PASS SUCCESS 53.6% (5th) vs TECH PASS SUCCESS ALLOWED 42.3% (81st) | CFBD] Mestemaker has 29 touchdown passes, most in FBS, at 9.6 yards per attempt. Joey McGuire says he'd be surprised if Mestemaker isn't the No. 1 pick. Tech's coordinator, Shiel Wood, admits his busts come on formation adjustments, and Morris varies tempo to stress alignment. Expect formation into tempo, especially on passing downs, where Tech's defense ranks 73rd. Key number two: Tech's pass rush has nobody to hit. Tech has 18 sacks over its last four games. But Oklahoma State gives up a sack on 2.4 percent of dropbacks, seventh in the country. Wood's own scouting report: "The rush does not bother him at all." The numbers agree. Key number three: the other side is a mismatch too. Oklahoma State's defense is 64th in SP+, 91st against the pass by EPA, and 102nd in points allowed per scoring opportunity. In two Tommy Castellanos starts, Tech is averaging 43.5 points and 555 yards. Against West Virginia: 362 passing, five touchdowns, 102 rushing. The quarterback run game gives Tech an extra hat in the box. The Cowboys' counter is corner LaDainian Fields and his nation-leading seven interceptions, against a quarterback with one pick all year. [GFX: X-FACTOR | CALEB HAWKINS | 1,081 RUSH YDS, 5.8 YPC, 37 REC] X-factor: Caleb Hawkins. Tech's best defensive number is rushing success allowed, 18th. If Tech plays two-high to cap Mestemaker, Hawkins makes it pay. He had 194 and 175 the last two weeks. [GFX: THE STAT | 2.4%] The stat: 2.4 percent. Oklahoma State's sack rate allowed. Tech's rush is its best weapon, and it's aimed at one of the best-protected quarterbacks in the country. Prediction: both offenses win their unit matchup, the over is in play by the third quarter, and the last team with the ball wins. Oklahoma State 41, Texas Tech 38.
Writer's room: cold-open hooks
- The over/under is 72 and a half. That's not a betting line. That's a dare.
- Last year, Texas Tech beat Oklahoma State 42 to nothing. This year, the Cowboys' quarterback might go first overall. A lot changes in twelve months in Stillwater.
- A projected first-round quarterback, a fifth-year journeyman on his fourth school, and a 9:30 Eastern kickoff. Big 12 After Dark has never been more Big 12.
Writer's room: exits
- Over or under 72.5? There's no wrong answer. Except the under. Let's talk about it.
- Mestemaker at No. 1 overall: real, or Stillwater hype? Let's talk about it.
- Stay up for this one. If you're asleep before the fourth quarter, that's on you. Let's talk about it.
Sources
- Texas Tech, Oklahoma State set for high-scoring Big 12 clashCBS Sports ↗
- Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State prediction and oddsSI Betting ↗
- Shiel Wood previews Oklahoma StateOn3 ↗
- Quarterback to Back: Mestemaker vs. CastellanosPistols Firing ↗
- 2026 team advanced stats, SP+ ratings and season statsCollegeFootballData.com ↗