Week 11 Slate
CFB · Rankings

Masterstrokes and Money Pits: Grading College Football's Head Coaching Hires, 2024–2026

Twenty-eight FBS head coaching hires from the 2024, 2025 and 2026 cycles, graded A+ to F on program lift, results, talent leverage, roster building and cost, using CollegeFootballData.com data through games played by Nov. 11, 2026.

By Chalk It Sports

November 11, 2026 · Updated Nov 12 · 33 min read

The lede

Indiana was 9-27 in the three seasons before Curt Cignetti arrived. It is 35-3 since, with a 16-0 national championship in the middle, and the most important thing that run produced might not be the trophy. It was a hiring manual.

Two cycles later, the manual is everywhere. UCLA fired its coach three games into 2025, hired a Sun Belt head coach who brought 11 of his own players, and is 9-0. Oklahoma State, coming off 1-11, hired the first sitting FBS head coach in its history and beat No. 6 Oregon in Week 2. New Mexico, with the 112th-most talented roster in FBS, is ranked for the first time in school history.

The other side of the ledger is just as loud: about $33 million owed to a coach fired after two seasons, a first-time head coach whose own general manager says he "has bumped his head a lot," and Bill Belichick fighting to reach a third season in Chapel Hill. This is the report card on every hire that matters from the 2024, 2025 and 2026 cycles, graded on evidence, not vibes.

How we graded

  1. Program lift (weighted most): change in SP+ rating, an opponent-adjusted efficiency rating in points relative to an average FBS team, from the season before the hire to now. Unit detail uses EPA per play (CFBD predicted points added, garbage time excluded).
  2. Results vs. baseline: record against the previous three seasons, record against teams ranked in the AP Top 25 at kickoff, and postseason results.
  3. Talent leverage: SP+ rank against 247Sports Talent Composite rank. Outplaying your roster's rank is coaching; trailing it is a red flag.
  4. Roster building: 247Sports composite high school class rank and transfer portal volume and ratings (CFBD).
  5. Cost and stewardship: contract value, buyout exposure, and conduct.
  • First-year (2026) hires are capped at A: nine games can't earn an A+.
  • A firing for cause, or a firing within two seasons, is an F regardless of on-field results.
  • Interim coaches and hires below FBS are excluded. Polls are the AP and CFP rankings in place as of Nov. 11, 2026.

The report card

CoachSchool · hired forGradeVerdict
1. Curt CignettiIndiana · 2024A+9-27 before him, 35-3 and a 16-0 national title since.
2. Bob ChesneyUCLA · 2026ASame talent as the 3-9 team, 87 spots better in SP+, 9-0.
3. Morgan ScalleyUtah · 2026AReplaced a legend amid a public split; 9-0 and No. 2 in the CFP.
4. Jake DickertWake Forest · 2025ASmallest school in the Power Four; offense tied for best in FBS by EPA.
5. Eric MorrisOklahoma State · 2026A-1-11 to 6-3 and SP+ #121 to #20, on a $3.8M salary.
6. Jason EckNew Mexico · 2025A-Talent #112, best defense in FBS by EPA, first AP ranking in school history.
7. Manny DiazDuke · 2024B+Inherited a good team and won it an ACC title.
8. Will SteinKentucky · 2026B+First-time head coach, 5-7 to 7-2, two top-10 scalps.
9. Willie FritzHouston · 2024B+Year one looked like a miss; years two and three are 17-5.
10. Lane KiffinLSU · 2026BSP+ says top 7; the record says 6-3. At $13M, the bar is the playoff.
11. James FranklinVirginia Tech · 2026BPenn State fired him; he lifted a 3-9 team 16.7 SP+ points in one year.
12. Brent BrennanArizona · 2024BInherited a 10-3 team, fell to 4-8, rebuilt to 16-6 since.
13. Kalen DeBoerAlabama · 2024B-Graded on the Saban curve; year three is the best of the three.
14. Kyle WhittinghamMichigan · 2026C+No. 3 defense in SP+, No. 99 offense. 5-4.
15. Jon SumrallFlorida · 2026C+Beat two top-10 teams; lost four games by 16 or more.
16. Alex GoleshAuburn · 2026CBeat No. 1 Georgia; SP+ rates Auburn 31 spots worse than last year.
17. Mike ElkoTexas A&M · 2024C11-0 start in 2025; 4-5 and 0-4 against ranked teams in 2026.
18. Matt CampbellPenn State · 2026C-$70.5M guaranteed, talent down 16 spots, 2-4 in the Big Ten.
19. Bill BelichickNorth Carolina · 2025D+9-12, an internal investigation, and two top aides gone.
20. Jeff LebbyMississippi State · 2024DRecruits like a top-25 program, plays like a .324 one; 2-13 vs. ranked teams.
21. Ryan SilverfieldArkansas · 2026DSP+ #53 to #88, 0-4 vs. ranked teams, and a 70% guarantee.
22. Jimmy RogersIowa State · 2026D-A defensive coach whose defense went from No. 25 to No. 93.
23. Will HallTulane · 2026D-Took over a CFP team; SP+ #45 to #114 and a 60-10 loss to Tulsa.
24. Tosh LupoiCalifornia · 2026D-Talent #33, SP+ #113, and a public critique from his own GM.
25. Jonathan SmithMichigan State · 2024FFired after two seasons; about $33M owed.
26. Trent BrayOregon State · 2024FFired at 0-7, Oregon State's worst start since 1991.
27. DeShaun FosterUCLA · 2024F5-10 and fired three games into year two. His successor is 9-0 with the same talent.
28. Sherrone MooreMichigan · 2024FBeat Ohio State in 2024; fired for cause in December 2025.
Graphic
ESPN-style ranking board, best 12 in one template and worst 10 in a second, using the CSV in the production kit below

1. The Masterstrokes (A+ to A-)

Six hires that changed a program's trajectory, with the numbers to prove it. Every one of them beats its roster: on average these teams rank 47 spots higher in SP+ than in the 247Sports Talent Composite. Talent wins in this sport. These coaches are winning with less of it.

Cignetti, Indiana2023 → 2026+30.9
Morris, Oklahoma State2025 → 2026+30.6
Eck, New Mexico2024 → 2026+29.2
Chesney, UCLA2025 → 2026+28.9
Dickert, Wake Forest2024 → 2026+25.7
Fritz, Houston2023 → 2026+21.9
Franklin, Virginia Tech2025 → 2026+16.7
Kiffin, LSU2025 → 2026+12.6
Stein, Kentucky2025 → 2026+6.5
Diaz, Duke2023 → 2026+3.6
Brennan, Arizona2023 → 2026+1.3

Program lift for the 12 best hires, in SP+ points from the season before the hire. Scalley is the exception by design: he inherited an SP+ top-10 team and held it (−0.7).

1. Curt Cignetti, Indiana (A+)

The hire that turned a 9-27 program into a 16-0 national champion, and turned every athletic director's search into a Cignetti photocopy.

Grade
A+
Hired for
2024 season
Record
35-3 at Indiana (11-2, 16-0, 8-1). Previous three seasons: 9-27
SP+ before → now
#92 (−7.4) in 2023 → #1 (32.4) in 2025 → #5 (23.5) in 2026
Talent vs. results
2025: talent #72, SP+ #1. 2026: talent #38, SP+ #5
Vs. AP Top 25
6-3 (6-0 in 2025)
Contract
8 years through Nov. 30, 2033, about $11.6M a year; he owes IU $15M if he leaves before Nov. 30, 2026

Identity: the defense is the constant. Indiana's defensive SP+ ranked No. 15 in 2024, No. 2 in 2025 and is No. 2 again, and its defensive EPA per play went from 0.21 the year before he arrived to −0.06 during the title run. The 2026 offense has slipped from No. 2 to No. 27 in SP+, which is why the Hoosiers are winning 13-6 and 20-17 instead of 56-6.

Roster: he built version one with a pipeline from his old job, as 13 of Indiana's 30 incoming 2024 transfers came from James Madison. High school classes have climbed with the results, from No. 65 (2024) to No. 47 (2025) to No. 29 (2026). His 17 incoming 2026 transfers averaged a 0.887 rating, among the highest of any program in this story.

Defining moment: the 2025 run. Indiana beat No. 1 Ohio State 13-10 for the Big Ten title, then No. 9 Alabama 38-3, No. 4 Oregon 56-22 and No. 2 Miami 27-21 to finish 16-0.

Why A+: a roster ranked outside the top 70 in talent won the national championship. The only blemish in 2026 is a 19-15 loss to Ohio State.

I plan on retiring as a Hoosier.

— Curt Cignetti, on his October 2025 extension (CBS Sports)
Graphic
Before/after slab, "9-27 → 35-3," with the 2025 bracket path: Ohio State 13-10, Alabama 38-3, Oregon 56-22, Miami 27-21

2. Bob Chesney, UCLA (A)

UCLA fired its coach three games into 2025. His replacement hasn't lost.

Grade
A
Hired for
2026 season
Record
9-0. Previous three UCLA seasons: 16-21. At JMU: 21-6 with a 2025 CFP berth
SP+ before → now
#98 (−8.7) → #11 (20.2). Defense #6
Talent vs. results
Talent #26 in 2025, #25 in 2026, essentially the same roster strength
Vs. AP Top 25
1-0 (17-15 at No. 13 Oregon)
Contract
5 years, $33.75M ($6.75M average); 75% of remaining base and talent fee owed if fired without cause

Identity: defense first. UCLA allowed 0.21 EPA per play in 2025 and allows −0.17 now, second-best in FBS and the largest one-year defensive improvement in the country. The Bruins have allowed 24 points or fewer in eight of nine games, so an offense ranked No. 29 in SP+ is enough.

Roster: he imported his operating system. Eleven of UCLA's 43 incoming 2026 transfers came from James Madison. Cal general manager Ron Rivera said UCLA "brought probably half of the team"; the portal data says about a quarter of the incoming class. The 2026 high school class ranked No. 62.

Defining moment: Week 6 at Autzen Stadium, UCLA 17, No. 13 Oregon 15. The Bruins entered unranked in the first weeks of the season and are No. 4 in both the AP poll and CFP rankings.

Why A, not A+: it is the biggest same-roster turnaround in the sport, but it is nine games, one ranked win, and postgame win expectancy says this is an 8-1 team that has gone 9-0. He is the first sitting head coach to leave a job for UCLA since Pepper Rodgers in 1971 (Los Angeles Times).

Graphic
Split screen, same roster talent rank (#26 → #25), SP+ rank #98 → #11

3. Morgan Scalley, Utah (A)

Replacing a 21-year legend is supposed to be the hardest job in coaching. Scalley's Utes are 9-0.

Grade
A
Hired for
2026 season
Record
9-0. Previous three Utah seasons: 24-14
SP+ before → now
#8 (22.2) → #9 (21.5). Offense #6, defense #19
Talent vs. results
Talent #58, the lowest of any team in the SP+ top 10
Vs. AP Top 25
2-0 (No. 14 Houston, No. 7 BYU)
Contract
5 years, $27M, up to $36M with incentives (KSL)

Identity: a 10-year defensive coordinator whose team wins with offense. Utah's offensive EPA per play is 0.29 and its offense ranks No. 6 in SP+. The defense is good (No. 19), not the old Whittingham wall, so this is a different Utah on the same foundation.

Roster: Utah is winning with less. Its talent composite slipped from No. 44 to No. 58, while Scalley's first class ranked No. 27, the program's best since 2023.

Defining moment: Week 10, Utah 28, No. 7 BYU 20. Utah is No. 2 in the AP poll and the CFP rankings.

Why A: the transition was messy. Public records show Whittingham stepped down after Utah's proposed 2026 terms would have given Scalley control of recruiting and roster decisions (Deseret News). The successor then went 9-0. Not an A+ because the Utes are 1.3 wins ahead of postgame win expectancy (7.7), including a 27-24 escape at Colorado.

Graphic
Talent rank vs. SP+ rank for the SP+ top 10, Utah circled at #58 talent

4. Jake Dickert, Wake Forest (A)

Wake Forest spends in the ACC's lower third, by its own coach's account. It is 8-1.

Grade
A
Hired for
2025 season
Record
17-5 (9-4, 8-1). Previous three seasons: 16-21
SP+ before → now
#93 (−5.7) in 2024 → #12 (20.0)
Talent vs. results
Talent #63, SP+ #12
Vs. AP Top 25
2-2
Contract
Long-term extension announced Nov 12, 2026; years and terms not disclosed (Wake Forest is a private institution).

Identity: balance with an explosive edge. Wake's offensive EPA per play went from 0.09 to 0.39, tied with Miami for the best in FBS, and it ranks No. 12 in offensive SP+ and No. 23 on defense.

Roster: portal and revenue share. Wake took 33 incoming transfers in 2025 and 24 in 2026, and the high school class jumped from No. 63 to No. 39. Dickert told Fox Sports Wake's roster spending ranks in the "lower third" of the ACC.

Defining moment: Week 4, a 30-27 road win at No. 16 Louisville. The only loss is 33-20 to then-No. 5 Miami.

Why A: a 25.7-point SP+ lift in two years at the smallest school in the Power Four, and year one (9-4 with a Duke's Mayo Bowl win over Mississippi State) was not a fluke. Wake is No. 11 in the AP poll and No. 13 in the CFP.

We didn't come here to leave.

— Jake Dickert to Fox Sports, November 2026
Graphic
Offensive EPA per play leaderboard, Wake Forest tied for No. 1 with Miami at 0.39

5. Eric Morris, Oklahoma State (A-)

Oklahoma State went 1-11. Then it hired the first sitting FBS head coach in school history.

Grade
A-
Hired for
2026 season
Record
6-3. Previous three seasons: 14-24
SP+ before → now
#121 (−15.1) → #20 (15.5). Offense #3
Talent vs. results
Talent #65, SP+ #20
Vs. AP Top 25
1-1 (beat No. 6 Oregon; lost by 3 at No. 20 Houston)
Contract
5 years through Jan. 31, 2031; $3.8M in 2026

Identity: the offense that led FBS in scoring and total offense at North Texas in 2025 came with him. It ranks No. 3 in SP+, and offensive EPA per play went from −0.07 to 0.25. The defense ranks No. 64, which explains losses by 14, 3 and 2 points.

Roster: a full flip, with 55 incoming transfers and 65 outgoing in 2026. Sixteen of the newcomers followed him from North Texas.

Defining moment: Week 2, Oklahoma State 39, No. 6 Oregon 31, one week after losing at Tulsa.

Why A-: the biggest one-year SP+ jump of any 2026 hire (+30.6) at a fraction of peer salaries. The defense and two one-possession losses (35-32 at Houston, 51-49 at Iowa State) keep it from an A.

Graphic1-11 → 6-3
with SP+ rank arrow #121 → #20; CFP No. 25 badge

6. Jason Eck, New Mexico (A-)

New Mexico has the 112th-most talented roster in FBS and the best defense in the country by EPA.

Grade
A-
Hired for
2025 season
Record
17-5 (9-4, 8-1). Previous three seasons: 11-25
SP+ before → now
#116 (−14.8) in 2024 → #23 (14.4). Defense #7
Talent vs. results
Talent #112, SP+ #23, the widest positive gap of any coach on this list
Vs. AP Top 25
0-2
Contract
5 years, $8.75M; buyout $4M through 2026 (CBS Sports reports a clause may halve it)

Identity: a defensive monster built by a former offensive line coach. UNM's defensive EPA per play went from 0.31 to −0.19, best in FBS. Entering November it led the nation at 11.9 points allowed per game and plus-17 in turnover margin (CBS Sports), then won 31-3 at Nevada. It has done this without starting quarterback Jack Layne, out for the season after a second elbow surgery.

Roster: Eck brought his Idaho core, including Layne, center Kaden Robnett and his son, linebacker Jaxton Eck. The 2026 high school class (No. 87) is UNM's best since at least 2021.

Defining moment: Week 3 of 2025 at the Rose Bowl, New Mexico 35, UCLA 10. The Lobos then reached their first bowl since 2016 and are now ranked for the first time in school history (No. 23 AP).

Why A-: the biggest talent-to-production overachievement in the sport. Not an A because UNM is 0-2 against ranked teams and plays a Mountain West schedule.

Graphic
Defensive EPA per play, 2024 vs. 2026: 0.31 → −0.19, #1 in FBS

2. Ahead of Schedule (B+ to B)

Not finished products, but the arrows point the right way. Three are first-year hires whose SP+ ratings jumped; three are 2024 hires whose second and third seasons rewrote the story of their first.

7. Manny Diaz, Duke (B+)

He inherited a winning Duke and hung a banner.

Grade
B+
Hired for
2024 season
Record
25-11 (9-4, 9-5, 7-2). Previous three seasons: 20-18
SP+ before → now
#29 (9.4) in 2023 → #32 (13.0)
Talent vs. results
Talent #69, SP+ #32
Vs. AP Top 25
1-6

Identity: a program that finds a way rather than one that dominates. The offense ranked No. 71 in SP+ in 2024, No. 19 in 2025 and No. 35 now; the defense has gone No. 31, No. 86, No. 26.

Roster: the 2025 class ranked No. 30, Duke's best in this data set; the 2026 class fell to No. 71.

Defining moment: the 2025 ACC Championship, Duke 27, No. 16 Virginia 20, followed by a 42-39 Sun Bowl win over Arizona State.

Why B+: a conference title is the point of the job. A 1-6 record against ranked teams is why it isn't an A.

Graphic
ACC title trophy shot with "25-11" overlay

8. Will Stein, Kentucky (B+)

A first-time head coach took a 5-7 SEC team to 7-2 and No. 11 in the CFP.

Grade
B+
Hired for
2026 season
Record
7-2. Previous three seasons: 16-21
SP+ before → now
#66 (1.8) → #41 (8.3)
Talent vs. results
Talent #23, SP+ #41; results still trail the roster
Vs. AP Top 25
2-2 (won at No. 9 Texas A&M, beat No. 10 LSU)
Contract
5 years, $28.5M; Kentucky also owes Mark Stoops nearly $37.7M (AP)

Identity: the former Oregon offensive coordinator fixed the offense first, from No. 80 in SP+ to No. 36, with offensive EPA per play up from 0.03 to 0.16.

Roster: 31 incoming transfers; the 2026 high school class fell to No. 60 during the transition.

Defining moment: Week 6, Kentucky 35, No. 10 LSU 34, one week after a 35-34 win at South Carolina.

Why B+: two top-10 wins and a 7-2 record. SP+ still rates Kentucky No. 41, and the 34-6 loss at Tennessee shows the gap.

GraphicOne-score SEC wins
strip: 35-34 at South Carolina, 35-34 vs. LSU, 21-13 at Oklahoma

9. Willie Fritz, Houston (B+)

His first Houston offense ranked 118th in SP+. Now it ranks 14th.

Grade
B+
Hired for
2024 season
Record
21-13 (4-8, 10-3, 7-2). Previous three seasons: 24-15
SP+ before → now
#94 (−7.8) in 2023 → #25 (14.1)
Talent vs. results
Talent #57, SP+ #25
Vs. AP Top 25
3-6

Identity: offensive EPA per play went from 0.04 the year before he arrived to 0.30 now, and the offense ranks No. 14 in SP+.

Roster: the 2026 class ranked No. 38, Houston's best in this data set.

Defining moment: the 2025 Texas Bowl, Houston 38, LSU 35.

Why B+: a 21.9-point SP+ lift and a No. 14 AP ranking. Losses to ranked teams (3-6) cap it.

Graphic
Three-year SP+ line, #101 → #40 → #25

10. Lane Kiffin, LSU (B)

LSU is 6-3 and No. 21 in the CFP. SP+ says it is the seventh-best team in the country.

Grade
B
Hired for
2026 season
Record
6-3. Previous three seasons: 26-13
SP+ before → now
#32 (10.3) → #7 (22.9). Offense #12, defense #9
Talent vs. results
Talent #8, SP+ #7
Vs. AP Top 25
2-2
Contract
7 years, $91M ($13M a year); 80% of remaining pay owed if fired without cause

Identity: the offense came back to life, from No. 75 in SP+ to No. 12, with EPA per play up from 0.03 to 0.22, while the defense held near its 2025 level (No. 11 to No. 9).

Roster: 44 incoming transfers (six from Ole Miss) and the No. 11 high school class.

Defining moment: Week 1, LSU 51, Clemson 10. The low point: 31-13 at home to No. 9 Alabama.

Why B: the process grades out, the results don't yet. Postgame win expectancy says LSU should be about 7-2, and the losses came by 8, 1 and 18. Texas visits Saturday.

GraphicRecord vs. rating
card: 6-3 / AP No. 24 next to SP+ No. 7

11. James Franklin, Virginia Tech (B)

Penn State fired him. Virginia Tech is 6-3 with him.

Grade
B
Hired for
2026 season
Record
6-3. Previous three seasons: 16-22
SP+ before → now
#105 (−10.1) → #46 (6.6)
Talent vs. results
Talent #27 (up from #40), SP+ #46
Vs. AP Top 25
0-0
Contract
5 years, at least $41.75M; supplemental pay rises from $5.5M in 2026 to $12.75M in 2030 (ESPN)

Identity: improvement on both sides, with offensive EPA per play up from 0.10 to 0.21 and defensive EPA allowed down from 0.24 to 0.12.

Roster: 29 incoming transfers, 12 from Penn State, and a No. 30 high school class.

Defining moment: Week 8, Virginia Tech 20, Clemson 16, at Clemson.

Why B: a 16.7-point SP+ jump, the third-largest among 2026 Power Four hires. No ranked wins and a 51-28 loss at SMU keep it at B.

GraphicSecond act
card, Franklin at Penn State 104-45 (CFBD) next to 6-3 at Virginia Tech

12. Brent Brennan, Arizona (B)

Year one was 4-8. Years two and three are 16-6.

Grade
B
Hired for
2024 season
Record
20-14 (4-8, 9-4, 7-2). Previous three seasons: 16-21
SP+ before → now
#18 (14.1) in 2023 → #82 in 2024 → #21 (15.4)
Talent vs. results
Talent #54, SP+ #21
Vs. AP Top 25
2-7

Identity: the defense was rebuilt, from 0.17 EPA allowed per play in 2024 to −0.01 now.

Roster: the 2026 class ranked No. 42, up from No. 85 in his first cycle.

Defining moment: Week 8 of 2026, Arizona 39, Iowa State 3.

Why B: he took over a 10-3 team whose coach (Jedd Fisch) left for Washington and it cratered, which counts against him. The rebuild since counts for more. Arizona is No. 22 in the AP poll.

Graphic
V-shaped SP+ line, #18 → #82 → #28 → #21

3. Incomplete: The Jury's Still Out (B- to C-)

Big names, big contracts, and data that won't commit. Each has a signature win or a real strength, and each has a number that should keep the athletic director up at night.

13. Kalen DeBoer, Alabama (B-)

Following Nick Saban was always going to be graded on a curve.

Grade
B-
Hired for
2024 season
Record
27-10 (9-4, 11-4, 7-2). Previous three seasons: 36-6
SP+ before → now
#7 in 2023 → #4 → #20 → #8 (22.7)
Talent vs. results
Talent #4, SP+ #8
Vs. AP Top 25
10-6

Identity: offense restored, ranking No. 10 in SP+ after falling to No. 36 in 2025.

Roster: high school classes of No. 2, No. 3 and No. 2.

Defining moment: the 2025 CFP, a 34-24 win at No. 13 Oklahoma, then a 38-3 loss to Indiana in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal. In 2026, a 31-13 win at No. 15 LSU.

Why B-: No. 3 in the CFP with a top-five roster is where Alabama should be. The 2025 SP+ dip and the Rose Bowl loss hold the grade down; a playoff run moves it.

Graphic
Saban's final three (36-6) vs. DeBoer's three (27-10)

14. Kyle Whittingham, Michigan (C+)

The defense is elite. The offense is No. 99 in SP+.

Grade
C+
Hired for
2026 season
Record
5-4. Previous three Michigan seasons: 32-9
SP+ before → now
#25 (12.4) → #36 (10.0). Defense #3, offense #99
Talent vs. results
Talent #11, SP+ #36
Vs. AP Top 25
1-2 (beat No. 11 Oklahoma 17-10)
Contract
5 years, about $8.2M a year on average (ESPN)

Identity: Michigan's defensive EPA per play (−0.08) is fifth-best in FBS. The offense scored 14 points or fewer in three of the four losses.

Roster: 19 incoming transfers, five from Utah; the 2026 class ranked No. 12.

Defining moment: Week 10, Michigan State 15, Michigan 6, in Ann Arbor.

Why C+: the defense is what Michigan hired, and the four losses came by a combined 23 points. The offense decides whether this becomes a B. (Full story in our Whittingham deep dive.)

Graphic
Unit-rank split bar, Defense #3 / Offense #99

15. Jon Sumrall, Florida (C+)

Two top-10 wins. Four blowout losses.

Grade
C+
Hired for
2026 season
Record
5-4. Previous three seasons: 17-20
SP+ before → now
#63 (3.5) → #47 (5.9)
Talent vs. results
Talent #10, SP+ #47
Vs. AP Top 25
2-2 (beat No. 4 Ole Miss 52-28, won 27-24 at No. 7 Texas)
Contract
6 years, $44.7M ($7.45M a year); 70% owed if fired without cause

Identity: the offense improved (EPA per play 0.05 to 0.19); the defense (No. 52 in SP+) has not.

Roster: 27 incoming transfers, 36 outgoing; the 2026 class ranked No. 17.

Defining moment: Week 7, Florida 27, No. 7 Texas 24, in Austin.

Why C+: the ceiling is real, but the losses came by 28, 19, 19 and 16 points, and a top-10 roster ranks No. 47 in SP+.

Graphic
Scoreboard strip of the four losses next to the two top-10 wins

16. Alex Golesh, Auburn (C)

One of the wins of the year, inside a season SP+ rates worse than the one he inherited.

Grade
C
Hired for
2026 season
Record
5-4. Previous three seasons: 16-21
SP+ before → now
#29 (11.6) → #60 (2.8)
Talent vs. results
Talent #18, SP+ #60
Vs. AP Top 25
1-3
Contract
6 years, $44.25M guaranteed, rising from $6.75M to $8M (FootballScoop)

Identity: the offense ranks No. 85 in SP+ and defensive EPA allowed rose from 0.02 to 0.12.

Roster: 39 incoming transfers, 13 from South Florida, and a No. 31 class.

Defining moment: 27-24 at No. 1 Georgia, on Alex McPherson's 34-yard field goal as time expired (AP).

Why C: postgame win expectancy says Auburn is a 3.6-win team; it has five. The Georgia win is real, and so is the decline.

Graphic
Walk-off field goal still with "#1 Georgia, 27-24" lower third

17. Mike Elko, Texas A&M (C)

From an 11-0 start to 4-5 in twelve months.

Grade
C
Hired for
2024 season
Record
23-12 (8-5, 11-2, 4-5). Previous three seasons: 20-17
SP+ before → now
#16 in 2023 → #9 in 2025 → #41 (8.3)
Talent vs. results
Talent #7, SP+ #41
Vs. AP Top 25
5-8 (0-4 in 2026)

Identity: the offense ranks No. 63 in SP+ after ranking No. 11 in 2025.

Roster: top-20 high school classes all three years (No. 19, No. 9, No. 10).

Defining moment: 2025 started 11-0 and ended with a 10-3 CFP first-round loss to Miami. In 2026, the four losses to ranked teams came by a combined 69 points.

Why C: a top-10 roster playing like a No. 41 team. Elko has publicly backed quarterback Marcel Reed (Yahoo Sports).

Graphic
SP+ rank line, #13 → #9 → #41

18. Matt Campbell, Penn State (C-)

Penn State's roster talent fell 16 spots in one transition. So did its results.

Grade
C-
Hired for
2026 season
Record
5-4 (2-4 Big Ten). Previous three seasons: 30-12
SP+ before → now
#15 (18.1) → #38 (9.3)
Talent vs. results
Talent #10 → #26; SP+ #38
Vs. AP Top 25
0-1
Contract
8 years, $70.5M guaranteed, $8M in 2026 plus a $1M annual retention bonus (StateCollege.com)

Identity: Penn State has led or been tied in five of six Big Ten games and won two. It has been outscored 80-44 after halftime and 42-9 in third quarters of conference games (Reading Eagle).

Roster: 38 incoming transfers and 48 outgoing, with 23 newcomers following him from Iowa State. The 2026 high school class ranked No. 65.

Defining moment: four straight losses (Wisconsin, at Northwestern, USC, at Michigan) after a 3-0 start.

Why C-: a 16-spot drop in roster talent, tied for the largest among these hires, on a $70.5M guarantee.

It's a real problem, I'll be honest with you... We have to figure it out and it starts with the head football coach.

— Matt Campbell, Nov. 10, 2026 (Reading Eagle)
Graphic
Second-half scoring bar, 44 for vs. 80 against in Big Ten play

4. Buyer's Remorse (D+ to F)

Where the money went sideways. Four of these hires already ended in firings; the rest are year-one or year-two programs that got measurably worse, or never got better, despite the resources.

Bray, Oregon State2023 → 2025−28.5
Moore, Michigan2023 → 2025−18.9
Foster, UCLA2023 → 2025−18.4
Hall, Tulane2025 → 2026−18.0
Rogers, Iowa State2025 → 2026−12.2
Silverfield, Arkansas2025 → 2026−8.7
Lupoi, California2025 → 2026−8.2

SP+ points lost under the hire. Smith, Lebby and Belichick don't appear because their programs were flat (within 3.5 points of the baseline): their failures are results and cost, not collapse.

19. Bill Belichick, North Carolina (D+)

The field results are recovering. The premise of the hire is not.

Grade
D+
Hired for
2025 season
Record
9-12 (4-8, 5-4). Previous three seasons: 23-17
SP+ before → now
#49 (5.0) in 2024 → #91 in 2025 → #50 (5.3)
Talent vs. results
Talent #28, SP+ #50
Vs. AP Top 25
1-3
Contract
5 years, $50M; only the first three years guaranteed, about $10M owed if fired without cause after 2026 (USA Today)

Identity: the 2025 offense ranked No. 123 in SP+. It is No. 49 now.

Roster: 39 incoming and 55 outgoing transfers in 2025; the 2026 high school class ranked No. 19.

Defining moment: a September 2026 internal investigation ended with the resignations of general manager Michael Lombardi and defensive coordinator Steve Belichick (USA Today).

Why D+: the on-field arrow is up, back to the 2024 level, but the hire was sold on an NFL-style operation, and that operation is gone.

I have never seen any contract where there is a three-year guarantee and no guarantee in the last two years.

— Sports lawyer Martin Greenberg, to USA Today
Graphic
Contract timeline, years 1-3 guaranteed, years 4-5 unprotected

20. Jeff Lebby, Mississippi State (D)

Three years, 11-23, and 2-13 against ranked teams.

Grade
D
Hired for
2024 season
Record
11-23 (2-10, 5-8, 4-5). Previous three seasons: 21-17
SP+ before → now
#62 (0.5) in 2023 → #56 (3.8)
Talent vs. results
Talent #20, SP+ #56
Vs. AP Top 25
2-13

Identity: offensive SP+ rose to No. 39 in 2025, then fell to No. 54; the defense has not ranked better than No. 61 in his tenure.

Roster: high school classes of No. 28, No. 28 and No. 23, recruiting that should produce more.

Defining moment: 2025 opened with a win over No. 12 Arizona State and ended with a 43-29 Duke's Mayo Bowl loss to Dickert's Wake Forest. In 2026, a 31-0 loss at LSU.

Why D: three seasons, no winning record, and the talent ranks 36 spots above the results.

Graphic2-13
vs. ranked teams, big number treatment

21. Ryan Silverfield, Arkansas (D)

Arkansas promised new money. Year one has produced a worse team.

Grade
D
Hired for
2026 season
Record
3-6. Previous three seasons: 13-24
SP+ before → now
#53 (5.1) → #88 (−3.6)
Talent vs. results
Talent #36, SP+ #88
Vs. AP Top 25
0-4
Contract
5 years, $33.5M; 70% of remaining value owed if fired without cause (Democrat-Gazette)

Identity: offensive EPA per play collapsed from 0.25 to 0.04.

Roster: 42 incoming and 43 outgoing transfers, seven from Memphis.

Defining moment: 43-10 at Utah in Week 2. Rock bottom: a 26-23 loss at Auburn.

Why D: the program got worse by every measure in this story.

Graphic
Offensive EPA per play, 0.25 → 0.04

22. Jimmy Rogers, Iowa State (D-)

Iowa State hired a defensive coach. Its defense fell 68 spots.

Grade
D-
Hired for
2026 season
Record
4-5. Previous three seasons: 26-13
SP+ before → now
#33 (9.9) → #81 (−2.3). Defense #25 → #93
Talent vs. results
Talent #68, SP+ #81
Vs. AP Top 25
1-4
Contract
$3M annual base through Jan. 31, 2032 (KCCI)

Identity: defensive EPA allowed per play rose from 0.01 to 0.18.

Roster: 48 incoming and 55 outgoing transfers, 15 newcomers from Washington State.

Defining moment: 39-3 at Arizona in Week 8.

Why D-: a 12.2-point SP+ drop at a program that had won 26 games in three years.

Graphic
Defensive SP+ rank, #25 → #93

23. Will Hall, Tulane (D-)

Tulane went from the playoff to 4-5.

Grade
D-
Hired for
2026 season
Record
4-5. Previous three seasons: 31-11
SP+ before → now
#45 (6.3) → #114 (−11.7)
Talent vs. results
Talent #70, SP+ #114
Vs. AP Top 25
0-0

Identity: offensive EPA per play halved, from 0.17 to 0.08.

Roster: promoted from Tulane's passing game coordinator; previously 14-30 as Southern Miss head coach in FBS games (CFBD).

Defining moment: Week 10, Tulsa 60, Tulane 10.

Why D-: the largest one-year SP+ drop (−18.0) of any 2026 hire.

GraphicPlayoff to 4-5
before/after

24. Tosh Lupoi, California (D-)

Cal's own general manager says the first-time head coach "has bumped his head a lot."

Grade
D-
Hired for
2026 season
Record
3-6. Previous three seasons: 19-20
SP+ before → now
#80 (−3.2) → #113 (−11.4)
Talent vs. results
Talent #33, SP+ #113, the worst gap of any coach on this list
Vs. AP Top 25
0-2
Contract
5 years, $22.6M

Identity: the offense ranks No. 108 in SP+. Lupoi stripped his offensive coordinator of play-calling at halftime of the UNLV loss and later benched quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele before regaining him as the starter (CBS Sports).

Roster: 32 incoming transfers averaging a 0.870 rating, one of the better portal hauls in this story, which makes the results harder to explain.

Defining moment: the 45-24 opening loss to Chesney's UCLA set the comparison Cal can't escape.

Why D-: an 80-spot gap between talent and production is the worst on this list.

He has bumped his head a lot.

— Cal general manager Ron Rivera on KNBR (CBS Sports, Nov. 6, 2026)
Graphic
Talent rank #33 vs. SP+ rank #113

25. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State (F)

Two seasons, 9-15, and roughly $33 million in buyout money.

Grade
F
Hired for
2024 season
Record
9-15 (5-7, 4-8). Previous three seasons: 20-17
SP+ before → after
#87 (−6.8) in 2023 → #82 (−3.4) in 2025
Talent vs. results
Talent #27 in 2023, #38 in 2025
Vs. AP Top 25
0-6
Buyout
About $33M (85% of remaining pay, with mitigation), per mlive and the Detroit Free Press

Identity: the 2024 offense ranked No. 119 in SP+.

Roster: high school classes fell from No. 42 to No. 57.

Defining moment: fired Nov. 30, 2025.

Why F: no lift, no ranked wins and the largest buyout bill on this list.

Graphic$33M
buyout tag

26. Trent Bray, Oregon State (F)

Promoted to keep continuity; fired at 0-7.

Grade
F
Hired for
2024 season
Record
5-14 (5-7, 0-7). Previous three seasons: 25-14
SP+ before → after
#19 (12.6) in 2023 → #126 (−15.9) in 2025
Vs. AP Top 25
1-4

Identity: the offense fell from No. 26 in SP+ in 2023 to No. 125 in 2025.

Roster: high school classes of No. 87 and No. 64.

Defining moment: fired Oct. 12, 2025 after an 0-7 start, the program's worst since 1991 (AP).

Why F: the largest SP+ collapse of any hire in this story (−28.5).

Graphic
SP+ rank cliff, #19 → #97 → #126

27. DeShaun Foster, UCLA (F)

Fired three games into year two. Then UCLA proved the roster wasn't the problem.

Grade
F
Hired for
2024 season
Record
5-10 (5-7, 0-3). Previous three seasons: 25-13
SP+ before → after
#27 (9.7) in 2023 → #98 (−8.7) in 2025
Talent vs. results
Talent #29 in 2024, #26 in 2025
Vs. AP Top 25
0-3

Identity: the offense ranked No. 103 in SP+ in 2024 and No. 105 in 2025.

Roster: the 2024 high school class ranked No. 90.

Defining moment: fired three games and 10 losses into a 15-game tenure (FootballScoop).

Why F: UCLA's talent rank barely moved (#26 to #25) when Chesney took over, and SP+ rose 87 spots. That is the cleanest coaching control group in the sport.

Graphic
Same roster, two coaches: Foster 5-10 vs. Chesney 9-0

28. Sherrone Moore, Michigan (F)

He beat Ohio State. The hire still ended in a for-cause firing.

Grade
F
Hired for
2024 season
Record
17-8 (8-5, 9-3). Previous three seasons: 40-3
SP+ before → after
#1 (31.3) in 2023 → #26 in 2024 → #25 (12.4) in 2025
Vs. AP Top 25
3-6

Identity: defense held (No. 10 and No. 15 in SP+), but the 2024 offense ranked No. 93.

Roster: the 2025 high school class ranked No. 6.

Defining moment: on the field, 13-10 at No. 2 Ohio State in 2024 and a ReliaQuest Bowl win over No. 17 Alabama. Off it, fired for cause on Dec. 10, 2025 after a university investigation found an inappropriate relationship with a staff member; the termination letter also alleged dishonesty during the investigation (CBS Sports, Detroit Free Press).

Why F: whatever the on-field grade, a hire that ends in a for-cause firing after two seasons has failed.

Graphic
Timeline card, Jan. 2024 promotion to Dec. 10, 2025 firing

5. The Hire That Changed Everything

Cignetti's Indiana was more than a great season. It was a template: hire a head coach who is already winning somewhere smaller, let him bring his system, his staff and his players, and trust it to scale. He brought 13 James Madison transfers in 2024. In the 2026 cycle, eight Power Four schools hired sitting head coaches. Chesney brought 11 players from JMU, Morris 16 from North Texas, Campbell 23 from Iowa State, Rogers 15 from Washington State, Golesh 13 from South Florida.

So did the template work? Raw improvement flatters anyone who inherits a bad team, because bad teams tend to bounce back on their own. To control for that, we fit a regression across all 136 FBS teams with SP+ ratings in 2025 and 2026, coaching change or not, and measured each 2026 Power Four hire against what a team at his starting point typically gains. We call it Lift Over Expected.

FormulaExpected change = 0.44 − 0.285 × (2025 SP+ rating)
Hire typeHiresAvg. lift over expectedMedian
Sitting head coach8+5.3−0.6
Former head coach3+4.6+0.7
First-time head coach6−1.4−2.5
  • Hiring a sitting head coach wasn't enough on its own. Three hit big (Chesney +26.0, Morris +25.9, Kiffin +15.1) and five came in below expectation, so the median sitting-coach hire was slightly negative.
  • The best predictor in this sample was the job, not the résumé. Programs whose 2025 SP+ rank trailed their talent rank by 40 or more spots averaged +7.6 points of lift over expected; the rest averaged −0.5 (correlation 0.51 across 17 hires).
  • Repair jobs beat replacement jobs. UCLA (talent #26, SP+ #98) and Oklahoma State (#49, #121) had talent the results didn't show. Penn State (#10, #15) and Iowa State (#71, #33) were already performing, and their new coaches had nothing to unlock.
  • The follow-me portal pipeline is a tool, not a plan: it worked for Cignetti, Chesney and Morris and didn't for Campbell, Rogers or Golesh.
  • Caveat: 17 hires and nine games. Treat this as a strong early signal, not a law.
Graphic
Scatter as a full-screen explainer, with the upper-right quadrant labeled "Repair jobs that worked" and UCLA, Oklahoma State and Virginia Tech highlighted

What the data says vs. what the fans say

Coach, schoolRecordExpected winsSP+ rank
Chesney, UCLA9-08.0#11
Scalley, Utah9-07.7#9
Golesh, Auburn5-43.6#60
Stein, Kentucky7-26.2#41
Kiffin, LSU6-37.0#7
Whittingham, Michigan5-45.7#36
Campbell, Penn State5-45.6#38
Lupoi, California3-62.2#113
  • Fans say LSU is a disappointment at No. 24 in the AP poll. The data says Kiffin has the No. 7 team in SP+ and is a full win short of postgame win expectancy, the unluckiest record on this board.
  • Fans say Auburn is back after beating No. 1 Georgia. The data says Auburn has won 1.4 more games than expected and ranks No. 60 in SP+.
  • Fans say UCLA and Utah are playoff locks. The data agrees they're top-12 teams in SP+ but says both are about a win ahead of how they've actually played.
  • Fans say Kentucky is a top-15 team. SP+ says No. 41, and three of the seven wins came by one score.

Expected wins are CFBD postgame win expectancy: the sum of each game's postgame win probability based on how the game was played, not the final score.

The exit: every athletic director in America has the Cignetti page bookmarked, and most of them are reading the wrong line. It isn't "hire the coach who's winning somewhere smaller." It's "hire the coach who's winning somewhere smaller, and send him somewhere the talent is already better than the results." UCLA did that. Oklahoma State did that. A year from now we'll know who else read the fine print.

Writer's room: production kit

Production kit

Alternative headlines

  1. Hired Guns: The Best and Worst Coaching Hires of the Portal Era, Graded by the Numbers
  2. The Cignetti Effect: Every Major Coaching Hire Since 2024, Ranked From A+ to F

Pull-quote candidates

  • UCLA didn't hire a coach. It imported an operating system, and 11 of the people who run it.
  • New Mexico has the 112th-most talented roster in FBS and the best defense in the country by EPA.
  • Repair jobs beat replacement jobs.
  • Same roster, two coaches: 5-10 and fired, then 9-0.
  • Cignetti didn't just win a national title. He wrote the hiring manual every athletic director is now copying, and most of them are misreading it.
  • Iowa State hired a defensive coach. Its defense fell 68 spots.

Graphic-ready summary (CSV)

rank,coach,school,year_hired,grade,verdict
1,Curt Cignetti,Indiana,2024,A+,"9-27 before him, 35-3 and a 16-0 national title since."
2,Bob Chesney,UCLA,2026,A,"Same talent as the 3-9 team, 87 spots better in SP+, 9-0."
3,Morgan Scalley,Utah,2026,A,"Replaced a legend amid a public split; 9-0 and No. 2 in the CFP."
4,Jake Dickert,Wake Forest,2025,A,"Smallest school in the Power Four; offense tied for best in FBS by EPA."
5,Eric Morris,Oklahoma State,2026,A-,"1-11 to 6-3 and SP+ #121 to #20, on a $3.8M salary."
6,Jason Eck,New Mexico,2025,A-,"Talent #112, best defense in FBS by EPA, first AP ranking in school history."
7,Manny Diaz,Duke,2024,B+,"Inherited a good team and won it an ACC title."
8,Will Stein,Kentucky,2026,B+,"First-time head coach, 5-7 to 7-2, two top-10 scalps."
9,Willie Fritz,Houston,2024,B+,"Year one looked like a miss; years two and three are 17-5."
10,Lane Kiffin,LSU,2026,B,"SP+ says top 7; the record says 6-3. At $13M, the bar is the playoff."
11,James Franklin,Virginia Tech,2026,B,"Penn State fired him; he lifted a 3-9 team 16.7 SP+ points in one year."
12,Brent Brennan,Arizona,2024,B,"Inherited a 10-3 team, fell to 4-8, rebuilt to 16-6 since."
13,Kalen DeBoer,Alabama,2024,B-,"Graded on the Saban curve; year three is the best of the three."
14,Kyle Whittingham,Michigan,2026,C+,"No. 3 defense in SP+, No. 99 offense. 5-4."
15,Jon Sumrall,Florida,2026,C+,"Beat two top-10 teams; lost four games by 16 or more."
16,Alex Golesh,Auburn,2026,C,"Beat No. 1 Georgia; SP+ rates Auburn 31 spots worse than last year."
17,Mike Elko,Texas A&M,2024,C,"11-0 start in 2025; 4-5 and 0-4 against ranked teams in 2026."
18,Matt Campbell,Penn State,2026,C-,"$70.5M guaranteed, talent down 16 spots, 2-4 in the Big Ten."
19,Bill Belichick,North Carolina,2025,D+,"9-12, an internal investigation, and two top aides gone."
20,Jeff Lebby,Mississippi State,2024,D,"Recruits like a top-25 program, plays like a .324 one; 2-13 vs. ranked teams."
21,Ryan Silverfield,Arkansas,2026,D,"SP+ #53 to #88, 0-4 vs. ranked teams, and a 70% guarantee."
22,Jimmy Rogers,Iowa State,2026,D-,"A defensive coach whose defense went from No. 25 to No. 93."
23,Will Hall,Tulane,2026,D-,"Took over a CFP team; SP+ #45 to #114 and a 60-10 loss to Tulsa."
24,Tosh Lupoi,California,2026,D-,"Talent #33, SP+ #113, and a public critique from his own GM."
25,Jonathan Smith,Michigan State,2024,F,"Fired after two seasons; about $33M owed."
26,Trent Bray,Oregon State,2024,F,"Fired at 0-7, Oregon State's worst start since 1991."
27,DeShaun Foster,UCLA,2024,F,"5-10 and fired three games into year two. His successor is 9-0 with the same talent."
28,Sherrone Moore,Michigan,2024,F,"Beat Ohio State in 2024; fired for cause in December 2025."

Sources

  1. CollegeFootballData.com API: coaches, records, SP+, PPA/EPA, talent, recruiting, games, rankings, portalcollegefootballdata.com ↗
  2. Indiana and Cignetti agree to new eight-year contractiuhoosiers.com ↗
  3. Inside the terms of Cignetti's contractIndiana Daily Student ↗
  4. Cignetti inks extension: 'I plan on retiring as a Hoosier'CBS Sports ↗
  5. Bob Chesney offers bold vision for UCLALos Angeles Times ↗
  6. Contract details for UCLA's Bob ChesneyNew York Post ↗
  7. UCLA search narrows to Chesney; Foster fired three games inFootballScoop ↗
  8. Morris named Oklahoma State's 25th head coachokstate.com ↗
  9. Regents approve Eric Morris contractPokes Report ↗
  10. Morgan Scalley named Utah head coachutahutes.com ↗
  11. Details of Scalley's five-year, $27M contractKSL ↗
  12. Public records show negotiations before Whittingham stepped downDeseret News ↗
  13. Whittingham signs five-year deal with MichiganESPN ↗
  14. Inside the investments powering Wake ForestFox Sports ↗
  15. How Jason Eck became an 'overnight success'CBS Sports ↗
  16. Lane Kiffin term sheetLSU ↗
  17. Lane Kiffin hired as LSU's coachESPN ↗
  18. James Franklin gets five-year, $41.75M+ deal at Virginia TechESPN ↗
  19. Kentucky's Stein set to make $28.5M; Stoops owed nearly $37.7MAP ↗
  20. Florida football coach Jon Sumrall contract detailsGainesville Sun ↗
  21. Auburn releases terms of Alex Golesh's contractFootballScoop ↗
  22. McPherson field goal lifts Auburn over No. 1 GeorgiaAP ↗
  23. Matt Campbell contract detailsStateCollege.com ↗
  24. Campbell describes second-half struggles as a real problemReading Eagle / Delco Times ↗
  25. Mike Elko backs Marcel ReedYahoo Sports ↗
  26. Bill Belichick kept his job at UNC. That doesn't mean he's safeUSA Today ↗
  27. Contract details for Arkansas coach Ryan SilverfieldArkansas Democrat-Gazette ↗
  28. Iowa State releases Jimmy Rogers contractKCCI ↗
  29. Cal finalizes Tosh Lupoi's contractSan Francisco Chronicle ↗
  30. Ron Rivera says Lupoi 'has bumped his head a lot'CBS Sports ↗
  31. Tulane promotes Will Hall to head coachESPN ↗
  32. What Michigan State owes Jonathan Smithmlive ↗
  33. Jonathan Smith fired after two seasonsDetroit Free Press ↗
  34. Oregon State fires Trent Bray after 0-7 startAP ↗
  35. Sherrone Moore fired for cause by MichiganCBS Sports ↗
  36. Moore firing letter alleges dishonesty during investigationDetroit Free Press ↗
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