Week 11 Let's Talk About It: The Slate

The slate

Times ET. Ranks are the CFP rankings released Nov 10. Lines as published Nov 9–11 and checked Nov 11 around 11:45 PM ET; re-check Saturday morning.

Why these six

Recording order suggestion: Texas–LSU and Utah–Arizona lead the week (both prime time, both with playoff consequences), then Georgia, USC–Indiana, Texas Tech–Oklahoma State, and Boise State as the Group of Six spotlight.

Wake Forest at SMU was added after the plan was locked and can lead the show in the noon window or run as a seventh segment.

1. Texas at LSU: ranked vs ranked in the 7:30 ABC window; Texas's seeding vs LSU's last stand.
2. Utah at Arizona: the unbeaten No. 2 on the road against a team that won the last two meetings and hasn't lost at home in a year.
3. Missouri at Georgia: the No. 1 team, the last SEC title-game race, and a 10-game series streak.
4. USC at Indiana: CBS calls it a playoff eliminator for both; a mysterious Wednesday line move adds a storyline.
5. Texas Tech at Oklahoma State: ranked vs ranked with Big 12 title-game stakes and a 72.5 total.
6. Oregon State at Boise State: the only non-autonomy team in the CFP top 25, playing for the Pac-12 title-game berth that leads to the G6 playoff bid, with GameDay on site.
7. No. 13 Wake Forest at SMU: a pick'em in the noon ESPN window, with ACC title-game positioning and Wake Forest's chance to add a second ranked win.

Considered and left out: Duke at No. 7 Miami (noon, ABC), No. 13 Wake Forest at SMU (noon, ESPN), No. 8 Tennessee at Texas A&M (3 PM, ESPN), No. 19 Ole Miss at Oklahoma (4:15, SECN). G6 backup pick: UNLV at New Mexico (7:30, CW), with New Mexico 8-1 and AP No. 23.

Added after the plan was locked, in the same format as the other six: No. 13 Wake Forest at SMU.

The seven breakdowns

Verification notes

1. Week number: NCAA.com, SI and the Pac-12 call this Week 11; ESPN's scoreboard files it as Week 12.
2. Ranks in the scripts are CFP (Nov 10). The AP poll differs (for example, AP has Notre Dame 3, UCLA 4, Indiana 6, Utah 2).
3. The unconfirmed AP figure for Georgia's run defense (under 85 yards a game) was removed from the script and replaced with CFBD rush EPA allowed (4th).
4. The Indiana line move (7 to 11 at Circa) is reported by Heavy, quoting Chris Fallica. The cause is unconfirmed. An X summary listed several USC injuries, but Hoosier Huddle saw nothing significant for USC, so the script leaves them out.
5. Utah–Arizona series: Utah's notes call it the 50th meeting while Arizona's say 47 previous meetings, so the script uses only the 26-21-2 record.
6. The Boise State -13.5 line was posted Nov 9, before Atkinson was ruled out, so it may have moved.
7. Advanced metrics come from the CollegeFootballData.com API, pulled Nov 11 around 11:55 PM ET (season to date, garbage time excluded). CFBD's season endpoints don't include red-zone touchdown rate, so points per scoring opportunity (drives reaching the opponent's 40) stands in for finishing drives. Red-zone percentages in the scripts come from team and media sources.
8. CFBD totals differ slightly from school and media counts in a few places: Colin Simmons 10 sacks (10.5 reported), Umanmielen 9 (8.5), Fifita 2,777 yards (2,794), Cayden Lee 60 catches for 809 yards (62 for 835), Austin Simmons 2,187 yards (2,204), Atkinson 3,148 yards (3,169). Where a script cites CFBD, it uses the CFBD figure.
9. Sack rate: SI reports LSU at 12.2% (No. 1); CFBD totals compute to 11.5% (No. 2). The page uses CFBD.
10. Sample caveats: Texas Tech's season offense is mostly Will Hammond's starts; Oregon State's passing numbers are Atkinson's; Indiana's season numbers predate its four-week slump.
11. User-confirmed, no public link: Trevor Goosby had surgery in Dallas on Oct 27 (treated as out for LSU); Texas's Smothers tore his MCL; Manning's fumble at Missouri came with 2:22 left in the third quarter; Utah's 15-game win streak.
12. Not in the CFBD pull, and therefore left out rather than estimated: pressure rate, coverage-shell rates (two-high vs single-high), blitz rate, and personnel-grouping usage. Scheme notes are built from coach quotes and reporting (McElroy, Schumann, Shiel Wood, CBS on Utah's option package) and labeled as expectations.
13. Predictions and schematic reads (simulated pressure, two-high, four-man rush) are opinion, framed as such. No quotes were made up; every quote comes from a linked source.
14. Wake Forest at SMU is confirmed for Week 11: Saturday, Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET, ESPN, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium (CFBD, Wake Forest Athletics, SMU Athletics). CFP ranks from Nov 10 list Wake Forest at No. 13; SMU is unranked by the committee (AP No. 25, Coaches No. 23).
15. Jake Dickert's record at Wake Forest is 17-5 (9-4 in 2025, 8-1 in 2026) per the school's Nov 12 extension announcement. Terms were not disclosed. The new segment uses that official 17-5 figure.
16. The SMU–Wake Forest line was SMU -1.5, total 60.5–61.5, as of Nov 12 around 4:50 PM ET (FanDuel Research; NCFootballNews citing FanDuel). AP listed the opening line as Wake Forest -2.5. Re-check Saturday morning.
17. Gio Lopez's injury is described as a leg injury by On3's Andrew Kube and as a knee injury by CBS. The script uses On3's wording. He is probable and expected to play, per Dickert.
18. CFBD totals differ slightly from school and media counts: Kevin Jennings 2,783 yards (2,764 school/media), Kendrick Raphael 760 yards (755), Langston Hardy 11.5 tackles for loss (13.5 media). Where the new segment cites CFBD, it uses the CFBD figure. SMU lists its third-down defense 9th (38 of 127, .299); CFBD computes the same rate as 10th, and the page uses CFBD.
19. Wake Forest's game notes typo the series as 3-0; SMU Athletics, NCFootballNews and the 2025 result of 13-12 support SMU leads 3-1. The page uses 3-1.