The ceiling and the floor
Sept. 12, Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium. Texas trails No. 1 Ohio State 23–3 going into the fourth quarter. Its offense managed 97 yards in the first half. Then the Longhorns convert a fourth-and-9 and finish a 91-yard drive. They convert a fourth-and-6 and finish a 72-yard drive. With 25 seconds left, Hollywood Smothers goes over the top from the 1, and Graceson Littleton picks off Julian Sayin's Hail Mary. Final: 24–23. It was the largest fourth-quarter comeback ever against an AP No. 1 team, and it made Texas the new No. 1.
That was the ceiling. The floor came four weeks later at the Cotton Bowl. Unranked Oklahoma scored one offensive touchdown and gained 238 yards, and it still won. Peyton Bowen returned an Arch Manning interception 42 yards for a touchdown. Manning threw another interception with 19 seconds left. Tate Sandell hit a 47-yard field goal as time expired. Texas went 3-of-14 on third down. A week later, Florida held the ball for 38:11 in Austin, Texas failed on two fourth-and-shorts, and the Gators won 27–24 as well.
Both teams are real, and that's the problem with asking whether Texas is back. The better question is which one walks into Tiger Stadium on Saturday night. That Texas is ranked No. 6 by the College Football Playoff committee, sits at 7–2, has won three straight, and is a 4-point underdog to No. 21 LSU.
The turn, in numbers
Offensive EPA per play by game. Source: CollegeFootballData.com.
From Ohio State through Florida, Texas averaged −0.05 expected points added (EPA) per offensive play, per CollegeFootballData.com. Below zero means the offense was losing value snap to snap. Over the last three games (Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri), it averaged +0.14. Passing EPA per play went from 0.13 to 0.25. Running EPA barely moved, from −0.09 to 0.00. Keep that last number in mind.
| Arch Manning | Comp–Att | Pct | Yds | YPA | TD–INT | Sacked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games 1–6 | 106–166 | 63.9 | 1,295 | 7.8 | 11–5 | 17 |
| Games 7–9 | 62–88 | 70.5 | 729 | 8.3 | 7–2 | 10 |
| Last 2 | 44–58 | 75.9 | 517 | 8.9 | 6–0 | 8 |
| Season | 168–254 | 66.1 | 2,024 | 8.0 | 18–7 | 27 |
Source: ESPN game log. Manning's last two starts: 16-of-20 for 220 yards and three touchdowns against Mississippi State, then 28-of-38 for 297 yards and three touchdowns at No. 18 Missouri, which earned him SEC Offensive Player of the Week. He did that against Missouri without Cam Coleman, the transfer who leads the team with seven touchdown catches. Coleman missed the game entirely. The scoring passes went to a freshman running back (Derrek Cooper, 24 yards), a freshman receiver (Jermaine Bishop Jr., 25 yards), and Raleek Brown (23 yards). The game was tied 20–20 after three quarters, and Texas scored the last 14 points.
Missouri fans will point to one snap, with 2:22 left in the third quarter. Manning's arm came forward and the ball came out, officials ruled it a fumble, and Texas recovered for a first down. The SEC defended the ruling. Eli Drinkwitz declined to comment on the officiating and congratulated Texas. Both things are true: the call went Texas' way, and Texas still had to win a tied fourth quarter on the road, which it did.
The ruling on the field was a fumble. In replay review it was determined there was not clear and obvious video evidence that he had firm control of the ball when the hand intentionally started forward in order to overturn the call.
The injury ledger
| Player | Pos | Status for LSU | What it costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Goosby | LT | Out for season | Preseason first-team All-American with 22 career starts. Knee injury in the first quarter vs. Ole Miss (Oct. 24). Had surgery in Dallas on Oct. 27. Andre Cojoe replaced him. |
| Hollywood Smothers | RB | Out for season | Torn MCL. The NC State transfer scored the tying touchdown with 25 seconds left against Ohio State. |
| Nick Townsend | TE | Out for season | Opening-day starter on the depth chart. |
| Richard Wesley | EDGE | Out | Freshman edge. Could return for Arkansas, per SI. |
| Hero Kanu | DL | Questionable | Tear in his upper arm/shoulder vs. Missouri. Expected to try to play through it. |
| Cam Coleman | WR | Available | Missed Missouri entirely. |
| Colin Simmons | EDGE | Available | Played minimal snaps at Missouri. |
| Wingo, Littleton, Phillips | WR, DB, CB | Available | Played banged up at Missouri. No designation this week. |
Sources: Wednesday availability report via On3 and SI; CBS Sports on Goosby. The healthier report this week matters. Two of these injuries hurt more than the table can show. The back who dove over the top against Ohio State is done with a torn MCL. The left tackle who protected Manning's blind side had surgery in Dallas three days after he went down. Goosby's is the one that defines this team, because it hit the unit that was already the weakest. Before he went down, Texas allowed 2.71 sacks per game, tied for 117th nationally (CBS Sports). In the three games since, Manning has been sacked 2, 5, and 3 times.
Well, I think, I don't have all the particulars on Cam and Trevor. Obviously, neither of them look very good.
The ceiling is the line of scrimmage
Rank among 138 FBS teams. Source: CollegeFootballData.com.
| Texas offense | Value | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | 0.078 | 95 |
| Success rate | 41.9% | 80 |
| Rushing EPA per play | −0.006 | 118 |
| Line yards per carry | 2.61 | 130 |
| Stuff rate allowed | 21.1% | 117 |
| Havoc allowed | 18.5% | 127 |
| Standard-downs success rate | 46.5% | 90 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.58 | 10 |
Coaches will recognize the profile right away. Texas finishes drives: it is 10th nationally in points per trip inside the opponent's 40. What it can't do is stay on schedule. It ranks 90th in standard-downs success rate, it gets stuffed at or behind the line on more than one carry in five, and its line yards rank 130th. Texas averages 3.5 yards per carry (ESPN), which leaves Sarkisian calling second-and-long and third-and-medium all game. Brown's 157 yards against Ole Miss were the exception. Texas had negative rushing EPA in two of its last three games.
The low point came on Oct. 31 against Mississippi State. Texas won 31–3 and ran for 60 yards on 32 carries, 1.9 per attempt, per CollegeFootballData.com box-score data. College stats count sacks as rushes, and Manning went down five times that day, but that doesn't change the picture: in a 28-point win over an SEC opponent, the run game gave Texas almost nothing.
A week later Texas went to Columbia to face the No. 13 run defense in FBS by line yards allowed, which also ranks 23rd in stuff rate. The blocking didn't get much better. Raleek Brown didn't need it to. He carried 17 times for 85 yards (5.0 per carry) and a touchdown, and he caught a 23-yard touchdown pass. Everyone else in the Texas run game combined for 14 carries and 19 yards, three Manning sacks included. On tape, Brown didn't wait for holes that weren't there. He jump-cut defenders in the backfield, read the cutback lane, and made the first man miss to turn would-be stuffs into positive plays. He created his own line yards. That's a real weapon, but it isn't a plan Texas can run for 60 minutes.
That's why LSU is the worst possible matchup. The Tigers' defense ranks fifth in line yards allowed, seventh in stuff rate, and fifth in havoc rate. Their offense ranks sixth in success rate. If Texas can't get four yards on first down Saturday, the drop-back game has to carry everything against a front built to make it one-dimensional.
LSU's defensive line is elite, and the numbers back that up by every measure a line coach would use: fifth in line yards allowed (2.28 per carry), seventh in stuff rate (24.7%), and eighth in front-seven havoc rate (13.3%). Missouri's front made Texas' blockers look ordinary, and LSU's front is better than Missouri's on all three of those measures. Brown showed in Columbia that he can win when his line loses. Saturday will show whether he can do it against a front that wins more often than almost anyone's.
Not a chance.
Muschamp's defense
Rank among 138 FBS teams. Source: CollegeFootballData.com.
| Texas defense | Value | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate allowed | 33.9% | 8 |
| Explosiveness allowed | 1.11 | 14 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.30 | 5 |
| Havoc rate | 19.5% | 12 |
| Passing-downs success rate allowed | 22.3% | 4 |
| EPA per play allowed | −0.030 | 22 |
Sarkisian fired defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski in December and brought back Will Muschamp, who ran the Texas defense from 2008 to 2010. The result is the best unit on the roster. ESPN's FPI rates Texas' defensive efficiency No. 1 in the country, and SP+ ranks it fourth. The passing-downs number is the one that shows the identity: once Texas gets an offense behind the sticks, that offense converts at a 22.3% success rate, fourth-lowest in FBS. Front-seven players produce 12.2% of all plays as havoc plays.
The individual production backs it up. Colin Simmons has 10.5 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss (ESPN), including a school-record 5.5 sacks at Tennessee. In that game Texas held the Vols to 70 rushing yards on 44 carries and 4-of-16 on third down. Pitt transfer Rasheem Biles has 66 tackles, three interceptions, four sacks, and three forced fumbles, plus three SEC Co-Defensive Player of the Week awards. As a team, Texas has 52 tackles for loss, 27 sacks, and two fumble-return touchdowns, from Littleton (59 yards) and the 333-pound Maraad Watson (61 yards).
The path and the verdict
2026 team talent composite, per CollegeFootballData.com. Texas ranks second in the country, behind only Georgia. On SP+ it is tied for fifth at 23.5 (offense 21st, defense 4th). Georgia is first at 31.3.
The remaining schedule is at LSU (Saturday, 6:30 p.m. CT, ABC), Arkansas at home, then at Texas A&M on Nov. 27. DraftKings has LSU −4 with a total of 46.5, after Texas opened as the favorite. ESPN's matchup predictor gives LSU 52.6%. FPI gives Texas a 75.4% chance to make the playoff and a 21.8% chance to win out. Its SEC title odds are only 8.7%, because Georgia (6–1), Alabama (5–2), and Kentucky (5–2) are ahead of it in the standings.
Exit: In September, Texas proved it could come back on anybody. In November, it has proved it can quarterback its way past anybody. Saturday night in Baton Rouge, against the No. 5 defensive front in the country by line yards, it has to prove it can block anybody. Win that, and nobody needs to ask whether Texas is back.
Writer's room: alternate exits
Alt exits: (1) “Texas has a defense for January and a passing game for January. Saturday is when the run game finds out if it gets to come along.” (2) “The talent says the Longhorns can beat anyone. The line yards say anyone can make them earn it.”
Sources
- CollegeFootballData.com API: 2026 advanced team stats, PPA by game, SP+ ratings, talent compositecollegefootballdata.com ↗
- ESPN: Arch Manning 2026 game log, Texas team stats, FPI, Texas at LSU odds and matchup predictorespn.com ↗
- 2026 Texas Longhorns football team (schedule, box scores, staff)wikipedia.org ↗
- SEC releases statement on controversial fumble call in Texas-Mizzou gameSaturday Down South · Nov 7, 2026 ↗
- Trevor Goosby injury: Texas LT out for season with knee injuryCBS Sports · Oct 25, 2026 ↗
- Texas Longhorns remove multiple key starters from first injury report vs. LSUSports Illustrated ↗
- Colin Simmons, Cam Coleman statuses vs LSU revealed on Wednesday night availability reportOn3 · Nov 11, 2026 ↗
- X news: Texas grinds out 34-20 road win over Missouri; Hollywood Smothers out for seasonx.com ↗
- X news: Georgia No. 1, Utah No. 2, Texas No. 6 in Nov. 10 CFP rankingsx.com ↗
Confirmed by Chalk It Up Media: the timing of the Manning fumble ruling (2:22 left in the third quarter), Smothers' torn MCL, and Goosby's Oct. 27 surgery in Dallas.
Also from Chalk It Up Media: the film observations on Raleek Brown's run at Missouri. The rushing figures for the Mississippi State and Missouri games, and the LSU and Missouri defensive line metrics, come from CollegeFootballData.com.